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Bundesliga
Referee: Robert Hartmann
Dortmund
S S S T U
2–1
Full-time
Mainz
T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Mainz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,5
2,3
Scored
2,5
1,2
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

73% Possession 27%
17 Shots 12
8 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 6
7 Corners 2
2 Offside 4
3 Free kicks against 20
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

13. Mar -16 Dortmund – Mainz 2–0 16. Oct -15 Mainz – Dortmund 0–2

Match report

Dortmund Mainz
13′
🟨 Daniel Brosinski
1–0 P. Aubameyang ⚽
A. Schürrle
17′
44′
🟨 Suat Serdar
Half-time 1–0
J. Weigl 🔁
↦ G. Castro
59′
71′
🔁 L. Öztunali
↦ S. Serdar
Ł. Piszczek 🔁
↦ F. Passlack
77′
81′
🔁 Y. Muto
↦ C. Clemens
Raphaël Guerreiro 🔁
↦ S. Rode
86′
86′
🔁 P. De Blasis
↦ Y. Mallı
88′
🟨 Karim Onisiwo
2–0 P. Aubameyang ⚽
89′
92′
⚽ Y. Muto 2–1
P. De Blasis
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Dortmund

4-2-3-1
38 R. Bürki G
25 S. Papastathopoulos D
29 M. Schmelzer D
5 Bartra D
23 S. Kagawa M
18 S. Rode M
27 G. Castro M
21 A. Schürrle M
7 O. Dembélé F
30 F. Passlack D
17 P. Aubameyang F
Bench (7)
33 J. Weigl
26 Ł. Piszczek
13 Raphaël Guerreiro
1 R. Weidenfeller
9 E. Mor
20 A. Ramos
22 C. Pulisic

Coach: T. Tuchel

Mainz

4-1-4-1
1 J. Lössl G
18 D. Brosinski D
3 L. Balogun D
2 G. Donati D
16 S. Bell D
20 F. Frei M
27 C. Clemens M
10 Y. Mallı M
25 J. Gbamin M
45 S. Serdar M
21 K. Onisiwo F
Bench (7)
8 L. Öztunali
9 Y. Muto
32 P. De Blasis
33 J. Huth
24 G. Bussmann
26 N. Bungert
5 José Rodríguez

Coach: M. Schmidt

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Robert Hartmann · 70 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.