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Primeira Liga

Referee: Artur Soares Dias

Aves

S U T S U

1–3

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aves Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,5

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,2

2,5

Scored

0,8

2,0

Conceded

0,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 49%

29%

68%

Points per game

1,1

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

39%

68%

Both score Ø 54%

43%

64%

Average goals

2,4

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

49% Possession 51%

21 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 8

9 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Aves 12. · Sp Lisbon 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	29	23	3	3	+44	72
2	Benfica	28	22	3	3	+53	69
3	Sp Lisbon	28	19	4	5	+28	61
4	Sp Braga	28	18	4	6	+18	58
5	Moreirense	29	15	4	10	+0	49
6	Guimaraes	28	13	6	9	+11	45
7	Belenenses	29	9	13	7	+4	40
8	Santa Clara	29	10	7	12	+0	37
9	Rio Ave	28	8	8	12	-7	32
10	Portimonense	29	9	5	15	-11	32
11	Vitoria Setubal	28	7	10	11	-5	31
12	Aves	28	8	6	14	-11	30
13	Maritimo	28	9	3	16	-15	30
14	Boavista	28	8	5	15	-14	29
15	Tondela	28	7	7	14	-11	28
16	Nacional	28	7	6	15	-28	27
17	Chaves	29	6	7	16	-23	25
18	Feirense	28	2	9	17	-33	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	13	1	1	+23	40
2	Porto	14	12	0	2	+26	36
3	Sp Braga	14	11	1	2	+15	34
4	Benfica	13	10	2	1	+31	32
5	Guimaraes	14	9	3	2	+13	30
6	Moreirense	14	8	3	3	+3	27
7	Portimonense	15	6	4	5	+3	22
8	Boavista	14	7	1	6	+2	22
9	Belenenses	14	5	5	4	+5	20
10	Santa Clara	15	5	3	7	-2	18
11	Tondela	14	5	3	6	-4	18
12	Nacional	15	5	3	7	-5	18
13	Vitoria Setubal	14	4	5	5	+0	17
14	Rio Ave	14	4	5	5	-2	17
15	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	-4	17
16	Aves	14	4	3	7	-3	15
17	Chaves	15	3	6	6	-5	15
18	Feirense	14	1	5	8	-11	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	12	1	2	+22	37
2	Porto	15	11	3	1	+18	36
3	Sp Braga	14	7	3	4	+3	24
4	Moreirense	15	7	1	7	-3	22
5	Sp Lisbon	13	6	3	4	+5	21
6	Belenenses	15	4	8	3	-1	20
7	Santa Clara	14	5	4	5	+2	19
8	Guimaraes	14	4	3	7	-2	15
9	Rio Ave	14	4	3	7	-5	15
10	Aves	14	4	3	7	-8	15
11	Vitoria Setubal	14	3	5	6	-5	14
12	Maritimo	15	4	1	10	-11	13
13	Tondela	14	2	4	8	-7	10
14	Portimonense	14	3	1	10	-14	10
15	Chaves	14	3	1	10	-18	10
16	Nacional	13	2	3	8	-23	9
17	Boavista	14	1	4	9	-16	7
18	Feirense	14	1	4	9	-22	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.