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Serie A
Referee: Daniele Doveri
Fiorentina
S T
1–0
Full-time
Genoa
T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Genoa
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
50%
0%
Both score Ø 25%
50%
0%
Average goals
3,0
1,5
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
1,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,5
This season — Serie A · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
50%
0%
Both score Ø 25%
50%
0%
Average goals
3,0
1,5
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
1,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

47% Possession 53%
11 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 6
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 2
0 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
4 Yellow cards 4
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Fiorentina 10. · Genoa 9. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Chievo 2 2 0 0 +6 6
2 Torino 2 2 0 0 +3 6
3 Sassuolo 2 2 0 0 +2 6
4 Inter 2 2 0 0 +2 6
5 Palermo 2 2 0 0 +2 6
6 Sampdoria 2 1 1 0 +3 4
7 Roma 2 1 1 0 +1 4
8 Atalanta 2 1 0 1 +1 3
9 Genoa 2 1 0 1 +1 3
10 Fiorentina 2 1 0 1 +0 3
11 Udinese 2 1 0 1 +0 3
12 Milan 2 1 0 1 -1 3
13 Lazio 2 1 0 1 -3 3
14 Napoli 2 0 1 1 -1 1
15 Verona 2 0 1 1 -2 1
16 Bologna 2 0 0 2 -2 0
17 Juventus 2 0 0 2 -2 0
18 Empoli 2 0 0 2 -3 0
19 Frosinone 2 0 0 2 -3 0
20 Carpi 2 0 0 2 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Fiorentina Genoa
12′
🟨 Diego Capel
Matías Vecino 🟨
20′
Milan Badelj 🟨
33′
36′
🟨 Tomás Rincón
Half-time 0–0
Nenad Tomović 🟨
48′
54′
🟨 Olivier Ntcham
55′
🟨 Tino Costa
55′
🔁 B. Džemaili
↦ A. Costa
1–0 K. Babacar ⚽
Borja Valero
60′
N. Kalinić 🔁
↦ G. Rossi
63′
Milan Badelj 🟨
64′
Milan Badelj 🟥
64′
Mario Suárez 🔁
↦ K. Babacar
66′
74′
🔁 D. Perotti
↦ S. De Maio
77′
🔁 D. Lazović
↦ Capel
J. Błaszczykowski 🔁
↦ Borja Valero
80′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Fiorentina

12 C. Tătăruşanu G
23 M. Pasqual D
4 N. Tomović D
13 D. Astori D
28 Marcos Alonso M
20 Borja Valero M
5 M. Badelj M
8 M. Vecino M
22 G. Rossi F
30 K. Babacar F
10 F. Bernardeschi M
Bench (12)
9 N. Kalinić
18 Mario Suárez
16 J. Błaszczykowski
14 M. Fernández
21 Joan Verdú
11 A. Rebić
32 F. Roncaglia
33 L. Sepe
2 G. Rodríguez
72 J. Iličić
24 L. Lezzerini
3 Gilberto Junior

Genoa

23 E. Lamanna G
8 N. Burdisso D
4 S. De Maio D
90 I. Cissokho D
5 A. Izzo D
20 A. Costa M
88 T. Rincón M
93 D. Laxalt M
18 J. Ntcham M
21 G. Pandev F
16 Capel F
Bench (8)
31 B. Džemaili
10 D. Perotti
22 D. Lazović
15 G. Marchese
40 M. Cella
11 Diogo Figueiras
27 S. Ujkani
77 P. Tachtsidis

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Daniele Doveri · 82 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.