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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Oliveira

Moreirense

T U S T T

3–1

Full-time

Nacional

T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 18%

18%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

45%

Both score Ø 36%

36%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%

20 Shots 11

12 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 9

8 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Moreirense 18. · Nacional 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	9	2	1	+20	29
2	Sp Lisbon	12	8	3	1	+13	27
3	Porto	12	7	4	1	+15	25
4	Sp Braga	12	7	2	3	+9	23
5	Guimaraes	11	6	2	3	+6	20
6	Rio Ave	12	5	2	5	-1	17
7	Maritimo	12	5	2	5	-2	17
8	Chaves	11	3	6	2	+1	15
9	Estoril	11	4	2	5	-3	14
10	Boavista	11	3	4	4	-2	13
11	Vitoria Setubal	12	3	4	5	-3	13
12	Belenenses	11	3	4	4	-4	13
13	Arouca	11	3	2	6	-8	11
14	Feirense	11	3	2	6	-12	11
15	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	4	5	-4	10
16	Tondela	12	2	3	7	-9	9
17	Nacional	11	2	2	7	-7	8
18	Moreirense	11	2	2	7	-9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Sp Braga	6	5	1	0	+10	16
3	Porto	6	5	1	0	+10	16
4	Benfica	5	4	1	0	+12	13
5	Arouca	6	3	1	2	+2	10
6	Maritimo	6	3	1	2	+1	10
7	Rio Ave	7	3	0	4	-2	9
8	Guimaraes	5	2	2	1	+2	8
9	Boavista	6	2	2	2	+2	8
10	Chaves	6	1	4	1	+0	7
11	Vitoria Setubal	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Tondela	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	3	1	+0	6
14	Belenenses	5	1	3	1	-1	6
15	Estoril	5	2	0	3	-2	6
16	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Feirense	5	1	1	3	-6	4
18	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+8	16
2	Guimaraes	6	4	0	2	+4	12
3	Porto	6	2	3	1	+5	9
4	Rio Ave	5	2	2	1	+1	8
5	Chaves	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Sp Lisbon	5	2	2	1	+0	8
7	Estoril	6	2	2	2	-1	8
8	Sp Braga	6	2	1	3	-1	7
9	Belenenses	6	2	1	3	-3	7
10	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	-3	7
11	Feirense	6	2	1	3	-6	7
12	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Moreirense	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Boavista	5	1	2	2	-4	5
15	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-1	4
16	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	1	4	-4	4
17	Tondela	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Arouca	5	0	1	4	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.