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Ligue 1

Referee: Mikael Lesage

Nice

S T S U S

3–0

Full-time

Toulouse

T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 57%

73%

40%

Points per game

2,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

33%

47%

Both score Ø 50%

47%

53%

Average goals

2,5

2,1

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

0,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

67% Possession 33%

11 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 0

1 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 2

6 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 2. · Toulouse 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	16	11	3	2	+33	36
2	Nice	15	11	3	1	+17	36
3	Paris SG	16	11	2	3	+19	35
4	Rennes	16	8	3	5	-1	27
5	Guingamp	16	7	5	4	+6	26
6	Lyon	15	8	1	6	+10	25
7	Bordeaux	16	6	6	4	+2	24
8	Toulouse	15	6	4	5	+5	22
9	St Etienne	16	5	7	4	+2	22
10	Marseille	16	5	6	5	-1	21
11	Angers	16	5	4	7	-3	19
12	Montpellier	16	4	7	5	-5	19
13	Metz	15	5	3	7	-13	18
14	Lille	16	5	2	9	-6	17
15	Dijon	16	3	7	6	-3	16
16	Nancy	16	4	4	8	-10	16
17	Caen	16	4	3	9	-14	15
18	Bastia	16	3	5	8	-8	14
19	Nantes	16	3	4	9	-17	13
20	Lorient	16	3	3	10	-13	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Rennes	9	7	2	0	+10	23
2	Monaco	8	7	1	0	+25	22
3	Paris SG	8	6	2	0	+16	20
4	Nice	8	6	2	0	+12	20
5	Marseille	8	5	3	0	+8	18
6	Guingamp	8	5	2	1	+5	17
7	Toulouse	7	5	0	2	+7	15
8	Montpellier	8	4	3	1	+6	15
9	Bordeaux	8	4	2	2	+2	14
10	Caen	8	4	2	2	-3	14
11	Dijon	8	3	4	1	+5	13
12	St Etienne	8	3	4	1	+4	13
13	Lyon	7	4	0	3	+4	12
14	Angers	8	3	3	2	+2	12
15	Lille	8	4	0	4	-1	12
16	Nancy	8	3	1	4	+0	10
17	Bastia	8	2	4	2	+0	10
18	Lorient	8	3	1	4	-6	10
19	Metz	7	2	2	3	-9	8
20	Nantes	8	1	3	4	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	7	5	1	1	+5	16
2	Paris SG	8	5	0	3	+3	15
3	Monaco	8	4	2	2	+8	14
4	Lyon	8	4	1	3	+6	13
5	Bordeaux	8	2	4	2	+0	10
6	Metz	8	3	1	4	-4	10
7	Guingamp	8	2	3	3	+1	9
8	St Etienne	8	2	3	3	-2	9
9	Toulouse	8	1	4	3	-2	7
10	Angers	8	2	1	5	-5	7
11	Nantes	8	2	1	5	-7	7
12	Nancy	8	1	3	4	-10	6
13	Lille	8	1	2	5	-5	5
14	Bastia	8	1	1	6	-8	4
15	Montpellier	8	0	4	4	-11	4
16	Rennes	7	1	1	5	-11	4
17	Dijon	8	0	3	5	-8	3
18	Marseille	8	0	3	5	-9	3
19	Lorient	8	0	2	6	-7	2
20	Caen	8	0	1	7	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.