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Serie A
Referee: Michael Fabbri
Cagliari
U T T S T
4–1
Full-time
Genoa
T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Genoa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
3,3
2,0
Scored
1,2
0,7
Conceded
2,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,7
This season — Serie A · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 35%
37%
32%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
79%
42%
Both score Ø 55%
68%
42%
Average goals
3,7
2,3
Scored
1,4
1,1
Conceded
2,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,8
-0,1
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

44% Possession 56%
20 Shots 12
12 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 8
3 Corners 14
1 Offside 0
8 Free kicks against 13
5 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Cagliari 15. · Genoa 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 18 15 0 3 +25 45
2 Roma 19 13 2 4 +22 41
3 Napoli 19 11 5 3 +20 38
4 Lazio 19 11 4 4 +12 37
5 Inter 20 11 3 6 +10 36
6 Milan 18 11 3 4 +8 36
7 Atalanta 19 11 2 6 +9 35
8 Torino 19 8 5 6 +9 29
9 Fiorentina 18 7 6 5 +4 27
10 Udinese 19 7 4 8 -1 25
11 Chievo 20 7 4 9 -6 25
12 Genoa 19 6 5 8 -2 23
13 Sampdoria 19 6 5 8 -4 23
14 Bologna 19 6 5 8 -7 23
15 Cagliari 19 7 2 10 -16 23
16 Sassuolo 19 5 3 11 -9 18
17 Empoli 19 4 5 10 -15 17
18 Palermo 19 2 4 13 -20 10
19 Pescara 18 1 6 11 -19 9
20 Crotone 19 2 3 14 -20 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Aug -16 Genoa – Cagliari 3–1

Match report

Cagliari Genoa
Roberto Colombo 🟨
-5′
28′
G. Simeone 0–1
Edenilson
33′
🟨 Danilo Cataldi
1–1 M. Borriello
40′
2–1 João Pedro
44′
Half-time 2–1
Marco Capuano 🟨
49′
João Pedro 🟨
52′
58′
🔁 N. Ninković
↦ I. Cofie
3–1 M. Borriello
60′
4–1 Diego Farias
64′
Diego Farias 🟨
65′
65′
🔁 M. Pinilla
↦ L. Ocampos
M. Sau 🔁
↦ Diego Farias
75′
75′
🔁 D. Lazović
↦ D. Laxalt
76′
🟨 Luca Rigoni
Marco Capuano 🟨
79′
Marco Capuano 🟥
79′
B. Salamon 🔁
↦ João Pedro
81′
G. Munari 🔁
↦ N. Barella
83′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Cagliari

4-3-2-1
1 Rafael G
23 L. Ceppitelli D
24 M. Capuano D
29 N. Murru D
4 D. Dessena M
3 M. Isla D
77 P. Tachtsidis M
10 João Pedro M
18 N. Barella M
22 M. Borriello F
17 Diego Farias F
Bench (9)
25 M. Sau
35 B. Salamon
16 G. Munari
13 R. Colombo
19 F. Pisacane
26 L. Bittante
28 Gabriel
32 N. Giannetti
8 D. Di Gennaro

Coach: M. Rastelli

Genoa

3-4-2-1
23 E. Lamanna G
8 N. Burdisso D
24 E. Muñoz D
5 A. Izzo D
30 L. Rigoni M
2 Edenilson M
4 I. Cofie M
93 D. Laxalt M
94 D. Cataldi M
11 L. Ocampos M
9 G. Simeone F
Bench (12)
99 N. Ninković
51 M. Pinilla
22 D. Lazović
3 S. Gentiletti
10 O. Ntcham
16 A. Beghetto
21 L. Orbán
27 G. Pandev
28 D. Brivio
32 L. Morosini
38 L. Zima
83 Rubinho

Coach: I. Juric

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Michael Fabbri · 75 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.