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Serie A

Referee: Maurizio Mariani

Spal

T T U U T

0–4

Full-time

Milan

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spal Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 28%

13%

43%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

43%

52%

Both score Ø 59%

65%

52%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

38% Possession 62%

8 Shots 20

0 Shots on target 9

1 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spal 18. · Milan 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	24	20	2	2	+46	62
2	Napoli	23	19	3	1	+36	60
3	Lazio	23	14	4	5	+29	46
4	Inter	23	12	9	2	+20	45
5	Roma	23	13	5	5	+16	44
6	Sampdoria	23	11	5	7	+10	38
7	Atalanta	23	10	6	7	+8	36
8	Milan	23	10	5	8	+0	35
9	Udinese	23	10	3	10	+4	33
10	Torino	23	7	12	4	+4	33
11	Fiorentina	24	8	7	9	+2	31
12	Bologna	23	8	3	12	-7	27
13	Genoa	23	6	6	11	-7	24
14	Cagliari	23	7	3	13	-12	24
15	Chievo	23	5	7	11	-19	22
16	Sassuolo	23	6	4	13	-27	22
17	Crotone	23	5	5	13	-22	20
18	Spal	23	3	8	12	-19	17
19	Verona	23	4	4	15	-24	16
20	Benevento	23	2	1	20	-38	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	12	10	1	1	+26	31
2	Napoli	11	8	2	1	+18	26
3	Sampdoria	12	8	2	2	+16	26
4	Inter	12	7	4	1	+13	25
5	Roma	12	7	1	4	+6	22
6	Atalanta	12	6	3	3	+8	21
7	Lazio	11	6	2	3	+16	20
8	Milan	11	6	2	3	+1	20
9	Torino	11	4	5	2	+7	17
10	Udinese	12	5	2	5	+4	17
11	Fiorentina	12	4	4	4	+0	16
12	Cagliari	12	4	1	7	-4	13
13	Chievo	11	3	4	4	-4	13
14	Bologna	12	3	3	6	-3	12
15	Crotone	11	3	3	5	-6	12
16	Spal	11	2	5	4	-5	11
17	Sassuolo	11	2	3	6	-9	9
18	Genoa	11	2	2	7	-7	8
19	Verona	12	2	1	9	-15	7
20	Benevento	12	2	1	9	-16	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	12	11	1	0	+18	34
2	Juventus	12	10	1	1	+20	31
3	Lazio	12	8	2	2	+13	26
4	Roma	11	6	4	1	+10	22
5	Inter	11	5	5	1	+7	20
6	Udinese	11	5	1	5	+0	16
7	Genoa	12	4	4	4	+0	16
8	Torino	12	3	7	2	-3	16
9	Fiorentina	12	4	3	5	+2	15
10	Atalanta	11	4	3	4	+0	15
11	Milan	12	4	3	5	-1	15
12	Bologna	11	5	0	6	-4	15
13	Sassuolo	12	4	1	7	-18	13
14	Sampdoria	11	3	3	5	-6	12
15	Cagliari	11	3	2	6	-8	11
16	Verona	11	2	3	6	-9	9
17	Chievo	12	2	3	7	-15	9
18	Crotone	12	2	2	8	-16	8
19	Spal	12	1	3	8	-14	6
20	Benevento	11	0	0	11	-22	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.