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Primeira Liga
Referee: Jorge de Sousa
Sp Braga
S T S S T
3–1
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Vitoria Setubal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
3,3
3,2
Scored
1,8
1,8
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,5
This season — Primeira Liga · 21/21 matches
Win Ø 41%
67%
14%
Points per game
2,0
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
67%
48%
Both score Ø 57%
52%
62%
Average goals
3,0
2,9
Scored
1,9
1,1
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,9
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%
14 Shots 4
6 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 2
3 Offside 3
19 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sp Braga 4. · Vitoria Setubal 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 20 16 4 0 +39 52
2 Benfica 21 15 5 1 +38 50
3 Sp Lisbon 21 15 5 1 +30 50
4 Sp Braga 21 14 1 6 +18 43
5 Rio Ave 22 11 3 8 +5 36
6 Chaves 21 8 6 7 -3 30
7 Guimaraes 21 9 2 10 -7 29
8 Maritimo 22 8 5 9 -10 29
9 Boavista 21 8 3 10 -6 27
10 Tondela 22 7 4 11 -8 25
11 Portimonense 21 6 6 9 -1 24
12 Belenenses 21 5 6 10 -12 21
13 Pacos Ferreira 22 5 6 11 -15 21
14 Feirense 21 6 2 13 -9 20
15 Moreirense 21 4 7 10 -14 19
16 Vitoria Setubal 21 3 9 9 -13 18
17 Estoril 20 5 3 12 -18 18
18 Aves 21 4 5 12 -14 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sp Braga Vitoria Setubal
12′
🔁 A. Issoko
↦ João Amaral
1–0 Raúl Silva
André Horta
25′
35′
🟨 Edinho
Half-time 2–0
2–0 Paulinho
65′
Fábio Martins 🔁
↦ João Carlos
70′
71′
🔁 André Pereira
↦ Edinho
Nikola Vukčević 🟨
74′
Koka 🔁
↦ Dyego Sousa
76′
82′
🟨 José Semedo
83′
🔁 E. Başsan
↦ João Teixeira
3–0 Ricardo Esgaio
83′
Ricardo 🔁
↦ Paulinho
86′
87′
André Pereira 3–1
E. Başsan
88′
🟨 André Pereira
Diogo Figueiras 🟨
90′
90′
🟨 Pedro Pinto
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Sp Braga

4-4-2
1 Matheus G
34 Raúl Silva D
47 Ricardo Esgaio M
2 Diogo Figueiras D
5 Sequeira D
36 Bruno Vianna D
35 N.S. Vukčević M
23 João Carlos M
15 André Horta M
99 Dyego Sousa F
20 Paulinho F
Bench (7)
26 Fábio Martins
9 Koka
8 Ricardo
3 L. Rosić
7 Wilson Eduardo
12 Tiago Sá
87 Marcelo Goiano

Coach: Abel Ferreira

Vitoria Setubal

4-2-3-1
1 Cristiano G
21 Nuno Pinto D
32 Yohan Tavares D
91 Patrick D
14 Pedro Pinto D
29 Semedo M
6 Tomás Podstawski M
10 João Teixeira M
36 Edinho F
11 Costinha M
24 João Amaral M
Bench (7)
7 A. Issoko
77 André Pereira
19 E. Başsan
16 André Sousa
22 Nuno Reis
27 André Pedrosa
88 Pedro Trigueira

Coach: José Couceiro

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Jorge de Sousa · 70 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.