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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Sp Braga

S S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

100%

83%

Points per game

3,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,3

Scored

3,7

1,7

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+3,3

+1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 74%

74%

Points per game

2,3

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

70%

44%

Both score Ø 46%

48%

44%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

2,3

2,0

Conceded

0,9

0,6

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

42% Possession 58%

17 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 4

4 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sp Braga 4. · Sp Lisbon 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	28	22	5	1	+57	71
2	Porto	27	22	4	1	+56	70
3	Sp Lisbon	27	20	5	2	+36	65
4	Sp Braga	27	20	1	6	+38	61
5	Rio Ave	28	13	4	11	+0	43
6	Maritimo	28	12	6	10	-8	42
7	Boavista	28	11	4	13	-9	37
8	Chaves	28	10	6	12	-12	36
9	Portimonense	28	9	7	12	-6	34
10	Guimaraes	28	10	3	15	-16	33
11	Tondela	28	8	6	14	-9	30
12	Belenenses	27	7	8	12	-13	29
13	Vitoria Setubal	28	6	10	12	-16	28
14	Pacos Ferreira	28	7	7	14	-17	28
15	Aves	28	6	7	15	-14	25
16	Moreirense	28	6	7	15	-18	25
17	Feirense	28	7	2	19	-17	23
18	Estoril	28	6	4	18	-32	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	13	1	0	+39	40
2	Porto	14	13	1	0	+35	40
3	Sp Lisbon	14	12	2	0	+25	38
4	Sp Braga	14	12	0	2	+24	36
5	Maritimo	14	9	3	2	+9	30
6	Rio Ave	14	9	2	3	+12	29
7	Boavista	14	9	1	4	+5	28
8	Portimonense	14	7	2	5	+3	23
9	Guimaraes	13	7	2	4	-5	23
10	Pacos Ferreira	14	6	4	4	+1	22
11	Vitoria Setubal	14	5	6	3	+2	21
12	Belenenses	13	5	5	3	+2	20
13	Chaves	14	4	5	5	-3	17
14	Feirense	14	5	1	8	-5	16
15	Moreirense	14	3	6	5	-4	15
16	Tondela	14	4	2	8	-5	14
17	Estoril	14	4	2	8	-12	14
18	Aves	14	3	3	8	-8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	9	4	1	+18	31
2	Porto	13	9	3	1	+21	30
3	Sp Lisbon	13	8	3	2	+11	27
4	Sp Braga	13	8	1	4	+14	25
5	Chaves	14	6	1	7	-9	19
6	Tondela	14	4	4	6	-4	16
7	Rio Ave	14	4	2	8	-12	14
8	Aves	14	3	4	7	-6	13
9	Maritimo	14	3	3	8	-17	12
10	Portimonense	14	2	5	7	-9	11
11	Guimaraes	15	3	1	11	-11	10
12	Moreirense	14	3	1	10	-14	10
13	Boavista	14	2	3	9	-14	9
14	Belenenses	14	2	3	9	-15	9
15	Estoril	14	2	2	10	-20	8
16	Feirense	14	2	1	11	-12	7
17	Vitoria Setubal	14	1	4	9	-18	7
18	Pacos Ferreira	14	1	3	10	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.