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Serie A

Referee: Fabio Maresca

Crotone

S U U T T

2–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crotone Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

2,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,8

This season — Serie A · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 30%

10%

50%

Points per game

0,6

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

40%

80%

Both score Ø 40%

30%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

0,6

1,8

Conceded

2,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,4

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

35% Possession 65%

11 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 5

3 Offside 3

19 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Crotone 17. · Fiorentina 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	11	9	1	1	+23	28
2	Napoli	10	9	1	0	+22	28
3	Lazio	11	9	1	1	+19	28
4	Inter	10	8	2	0	+13	26
5	Roma	10	8	0	2	+12	24
6	Sampdoria	9	5	2	2	+6	17
7	Fiorentina	10	5	1	4	+7	16
8	Milan	11	5	1	5	+0	16
9	Atalanta	10	4	3	3	+4	15
10	Chievo	10	4	3	3	-2	15
11	Bologna	11	4	2	5	-3	14
12	Torino	10	3	4	3	-3	13
13	Udinese	10	3	0	7	-5	9
14	Cagliari	10	3	0	7	-10	9
15	Sassuolo	10	2	2	6	-11	8
16	Genoa	10	1	3	6	-6	6
17	Crotone	10	1	3	6	-14	6
18	Verona	10	1	3	6	-16	6
19	Spal	10	1	2	7	-11	5
20	Benevento	11	0	0	11	-25	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	6	5	0	1	+13	15
2	Inter	5	5	0	0	+8	15
3	Atalanta	6	4	1	1	+8	13
4	Sampdoria	4	4	0	0	+10	12
5	Roma	6	4	0	2	+4	12
6	Napoli	4	3	1	0	+11	10
7	Lazio	5	3	1	1	+8	10
8	Fiorentina	5	3	1	1	+4	10
9	Milan	6	3	1	2	+0	10
10	Chievo	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	Udinese	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Cagliari	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Torino	4	1	2	1	+2	5
14	Bologna	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Crotone	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Spal	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	Verona	5	1	1	3	-9	4
18	Sassuolo	5	0	2	3	-4	2
19	Genoa	5	0	1	4	-5	1
20	Benevento	6	0	0	6	-14	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lazio	6	6	0	0	+11	18
2	Napoli	6	6	0	0	+11	18
3	Juventus	5	4	1	0	+10	13
4	Roma	4	4	0	0	+8	12
5	Inter	5	3	2	0	+5	11
6	Bologna	6	3	0	3	+0	9
7	Chievo	5	2	2	1	+0	8
8	Torino	6	2	2	2	-5	8
9	Fiorentina	5	2	0	3	+3	6
10	Milan	5	2	0	3	+0	6
11	Sassuolo	5	2	0	3	-7	6
12	Genoa	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Sampdoria	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Udinese	5	1	0	4	-4	3
15	Cagliari	5	1	0	4	-8	3
16	Atalanta	4	0	2	2	-4	2
17	Verona	5	0	2	3	-7	2
18	Spal	5	0	1	4	-8	1
19	Crotone	5	0	1	4	-11	1
20	Benevento	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.