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Serie A

Referee: Gianluca Manganiello

Genoa

U S T S T

2–3

Full-time

Fiorentina

S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

This season — Serie A · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 37%

31%

43%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

29%

49%

Both score Ø 43%

37%

49%

Average goals

1,9

2,5

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%

7 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 10

1 Blocked shots 5

7 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 6

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Genoa 11. · Fiorentina 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	36	29	4	3	+61	91
2	Napoli	35	26	6	3	+45	84
3	Lazio	35	21	7	7	+41	70
4	Roma	35	21	7	7	+31	70
5	Inter	36	19	12	5	+36	69
6	Milan	36	17	9	10	+10	60
7	Atalanta	35	16	10	9	+19	58
8	Fiorentina	35	15	9	11	+12	54
9	Sampdoria	35	16	6	13	+1	54
10	Torino	35	11	14	10	+6	47
11	Genoa	35	11	8	16	-7	41
12	Bologna	36	11	6	19	-10	39
13	Sassuolo	35	9	10	16	-31	37
14	Udinese	36	10	4	22	-17	34
15	Crotone	35	9	7	19	-24	34
16	Cagliari	35	9	6	20	-29	33
17	Spal	35	6	14	15	-23	32
18	Chievo	35	7	10	18	-26	31
19	Verona	36	7	4	25	-46	25
20	Benevento	35	5	3	27	-49	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	18	15	1	2	+36	46
2	Napoli	17	13	2	2	+24	41
3	Sampdoria	18	12	3	3	+18	39
4	Inter	18	11	5	2	+22	38
5	Roma	18	11	1	6	+12	34
6	Atalanta	18	9	5	4	+12	32
7	Milan	18	9	5	4	+5	32
8	Lazio	17	9	4	4	+25	31
9	Fiorentina	18	8	5	5	+6	29
10	Torino	18	7	6	5	+10	27
11	Crotone	18	6	5	7	-2	23
12	Bologna	18	6	4	8	+0	22
13	Genoa	17	6	3	8	-2	21
14	Chievo	17	5	6	6	-4	21
15	Cagliari	17	5	3	9	-12	18
16	Udinese	18	5	2	11	-7	17
17	Spal	17	3	8	6	-11	17
18	Sassuolo	17	3	7	7	-11	16
19	Verona	18	5	1	12	-20	16
20	Benevento	18	4	2	12	-18	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	18	14	3	1	+25	45
2	Napoli	18	13	4	1	+21	43
3	Lazio	18	12	3	3	+16	39
4	Roma	17	10	6	1	+19	36
5	Inter	18	8	7	3	+14	31
6	Milan	18	8	4	6	+5	28
7	Atalanta	17	7	5	5	+7	26
8	Fiorentina	17	7	4	6	+6	25
9	Sassuolo	18	6	3	9	-20	21
10	Torino	17	4	8	5	-4	20
11	Genoa	18	5	5	8	-5	20
12	Udinese	18	5	2	11	-10	17
13	Bologna	18	5	2	11	-10	17
14	Spal	18	3	6	9	-12	15
15	Sampdoria	17	4	3	10	-17	15
16	Cagliari	18	4	3	11	-17	15
17	Crotone	17	3	2	12	-22	11
18	Chievo	18	2	4	12	-22	10
19	Verona	18	2	3	13	-26	9
20	Benevento	17	1	1	15	-31	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.