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Ligue 1

Referee: Clement Turpin

Toulouse

T T S U T

2–3

Full-time

Lille

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,5

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 23%

23%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

37%

66%

Both score Ø 49%

46%

51%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

31% Possession 69%

6 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 8

0 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 3

3 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 17. · Lille 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	36	29	5	2	+81	92
2	Lyon	36	22	9	5	+44	75
3	Monaco	35	21	8	6	+35	71
4	Marseille	35	20	10	5	+31	70
5	St Etienne	36	14	10	12	-7	52
6	Rennes	35	14	9	12	+3	51
7	Nice	35	14	9	12	+0	51
8	Bordeaux	36	14	7	15	-1	49
9	Montpellier	35	10	16	9	+1	46
10	Nantes	35	12	10	13	-6	46
11	Guingamp	35	12	10	13	-8	46
12	Amiens	36	11	9	16	-6	42
13	Dijon	35	11	9	15	-20	42
14	Angers	35	8	14	13	-8	38
15	Caen	35	10	7	18	-21	37
16	Strasbourg	35	8	11	16	-22	35
17	Toulouse	35	8	10	17	-14	34
18	Lille	35	8	8	19	-23	32
19	Troyes	36	9	5	22	-24	32
20	Metz	35	6	8	21	-35	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	17	1	0	+57	52
2	Monaco	18	14	3	1	+29	45
3	Lyon	18	11	5	2	+19	38
4	Marseille	17	10	5	2	+23	35
5	Guingamp	18	8	6	4	+6	30
6	Dijon	17	9	3	5	+4	30
7	Nice	18	9	3	6	+3	30
8	Bordeaux	18	8	4	6	+2	28
9	St Etienne	18	7	7	4	+0	28
10	Amiens	18	7	5	6	+5	26
11	Caen	17	7	4	6	-1	25
12	Nantes	17	7	4	6	-1	25
13	Strasbourg	18	6	6	6	-1	24
14	Rennes	17	7	3	7	-2	24
15	Troyes	18	7	3	8	-2	24
16	Toulouse	17	6	5	6	+2	23
17	Montpellier	18	5	8	5	+1	23
18	Angers	18	5	7	6	-3	22
19	Lille	18	5	6	7	-4	21
20	Metz	17	3	4	10	-16	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	12	4	2	+24	40
2	Lyon	18	11	4	3	+25	37
3	Marseille	18	10	5	3	+8	35
4	Rennes	18	7	6	5	+5	27
5	Monaco	17	7	5	5	+6	26
6	St Etienne	18	7	3	8	-7	24
7	Montpellier	17	5	8	4	+0	23
8	Bordeaux	18	6	3	9	-3	21
9	Nice	17	5	6	6	-3	21
10	Nantes	18	5	6	7	-5	21
11	Angers	17	3	7	7	-5	16
12	Amiens	18	4	4	10	-11	16
13	Guingamp	17	4	4	9	-14	16
14	Metz	18	3	4	11	-19	13
15	Caen	18	3	3	12	-20	12
16	Dijon	18	2	6	10	-24	12
17	Toulouse	18	2	5	11	-16	11
18	Lille	17	3	2	12	-19	11
19	Strasbourg	17	2	5	10	-21	11
20	Troyes	18	2	2	14	-22	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.