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Primeira Liga
Referee: Artur Soares Dias
Chaves
T U U S T
4–1
Full-time
Maritimo
S U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Maritimo
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,8
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,5
2,5
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
2,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,2
This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 36%
34%
38%
Points per game
1,3
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 49%
50%
47%
Both score Ø 50%
53%
47%
Average goals
2,9
2,4
Scored
1,3
1,0
Conceded
1,6
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,4
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

63% Possession 37%
17 Shots 14
6 Shots on target 1
5 Blocked shots 5
0 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 3
0 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 19
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Chaves 9. · Maritimo 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 32 26 4 2 +62 82
2 Benfica 33 24 6 3 +57 78
3 Sp Lisbon 33 24 6 3 +40 78
4 Sp Braga 33 24 3 6 +46 75
5 Rio Ave 32 14 5 13 -3 47
6 Maritimo 32 12 8 12 -11 44
7 Guimaraes 33 13 4 16 -10 43
8 Boavista 33 12 6 15 -10 42
9 Chaves 32 11 8 13 -12 41
10 Tondela 33 10 8 15 -8 38
11 Belenenses 33 9 10 14 -12 37
12 Portimonense 33 9 8 16 -10 35
13 Aves 33 9 7 17 -14 34
14 Moreirense 33 8 8 17 -20 32
15 Feirense 32 9 3 20 -15 30
16 Vitoria Setubal 33 6 11 16 -24 29
17 Pacos Ferreira 32 7 8 17 -24 29
18 Estoril 33 8 5 20 -32 29

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Chaves Maritimo
26′
Bebeto 0–1
1–1 Pedro Tiba
Matheus Pereira
37′
Paulinho 🟨
43′
45′
🟨 Zainadine Júnior
45′
🟨 Bebeto
Half-time 1–1
46′
🟨 Fabricio Baiano
2–1 Matheus Pereira
William
52′
3–1 R. Bressan
54′
57′
🔁 G. Ghazaryan
↦ Rodrigo Pinho
57′
🔁 Edgar Costa
↦ Gamboa
Jorginho 🔁
↦ William
70′
Pedro Queirós 🔁
↦ Rafael Furlan
74′
77′
🔁 Filipe Oliveira
↦ Valente
4–1 Matheus Pereira
77′
João Patrão 🔁
↦ R. Bressan
87′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Chaves

4-1-4-1
13 Ricardo Nunes G
2 Paulinho D
19 N. Maraš D
15 Domingos Duarte D
96 Rafael Furlan F
12 R. Bressan M
25 Pedro Tiba M
46 Stephen Eustáquio M
11 William F
91 Davidson F
73 Matheus Pereira F
Bench (7)
21 Jorginho
24 Pedro Queirós
8 João Patrão
14 Nuno Coelho
20 Thiago Galvão
6 Jefferson
1 António Filipe

Coach: Luís Castro

Maritimo

4-4-2
94 Charles G
23 Bebeto D
5 Zainadine Junior D
4 Pablo D
45 Fábio China D
8 J. Correa M
20 Fabricio Baiano M
21 Gamboa M
33 Valente M
95 Joel F
9 Rodrigo Pinho F
Bench (7)
10 G. Ghazaryan
12 Edgar Costa
29 Filipe Oliveira
93 Éverton Nascimento
31 Nanu
24 Diney
92 Edgar Mendonça

Coach: Daniel Ramos

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Artur Soares Dias · 181 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.