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Serie A
Referee: Marco Guida
Inter
T S S S S
1–0
Full-time
Milan
U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Milan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
33%
100%
Average goals
2,2
3,3
Scored
1,7
2,2
Conceded
0,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,0
This season — Serie A · 8/7 matches
Win Ø 53%
63%
43%
Points per game
2,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
50%
71%
Both score Ø 69%
38%
100%
Average goals
2,3
3,6
Scored
1,5
2,1
Conceded
0,8
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

57% Possession 43%
18 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 6
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
9 Corners 4
1 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Inter 4. · Milan 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 9 8 1 0 +13 25
2 Napoli 9 7 0 2 +8 21
3 Lazio 9 6 0 3 +4 18
4 Inter 8 5 1 2 +6 16
5 Fiorentina 9 4 2 3 +8 14
6 Sampdoria 8 4 2 2 +8 14
7 Roma 9 4 2 3 +4 14
8 Sassuolo 8 4 1 3 +1 13
9 Torino 9 3 4 2 +0 13
10 Parma 9 4 1 4 -1 13
11 Genoa 8 4 1 3 -2 13
12 Milan 7 3 3 1 +5 12
13 Spal 9 4 0 5 -2 12
14 Cagliari 9 2 4 3 -3 10
15 Atalanta 9 2 3 4 +2 9
16 Udinese 9 2 2 5 -5 8
17 Bologna 9 2 2 5 -6 8
18 Empoli 9 1 3 5 -5 6
19 Chievo 9 0 2 7 -17 2
20 Frosinone 9 0 2 7 -18 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Inter Milan
20′
🟨 Lucas Biglia
Borja Valero 🔁
↦ R. Nainggolan
30′
44′
🟨 Hakan Çalhanoğlu
45′
🟨 Davide Calabria
Half-time 0–0
61′
🟨 Suso
K. Baldé 🔁
↦ I. Perišić
70′
74′
🔁 P. Cutrone
↦ H. Çalhanoğlu
Matteo Politano 🟨
75′
A. Candreva 🔁
↦ M. Politano
82′
84′
🔁 T. Bakayoko
↦ F. Kessié
Keita Baldé 🟨
90′
90′
🟨 Tiemoué Bakayoko
92′
🔁 I. Abate
↦ D. Calabria
1–0 M. Icardi
M. Vecino
92′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Inter

4-2-3-1
1 S. Handanovič G
2 Š. Vrsaljko D
6 S. de Vrij D
37 M. Škriniar D
44 I. Perišić M
14 R. Nainggolan M
18 K. Asamoah D
8 M. Vecino M
77 M. Brozović M
9 M. Icardi F
16 M. Politano F
Bench (11)
20 Borja Valero
11 K. Baldé
87 A. Candreva
5 R. Gagliardini
10 Lautaro Martínez
13 A. Ranocchia
15 João Mário
23 João Miranda
27 D. Padelli
29 Dalbert Henrique
33 D. D'Ambrosio

Coach: L. Spalletti

Milan

4-3-3
99 G. Donnarumma G
22 M. Musacchio D
68 R. Rodríguez D
13 A. Romagnoli D
2 D. Calabria D
21 L. Biglia M
5 G. Bonaventura M
10 H. Çalhanoğlu F
79 F. Kessié M
9 G. Higuaín F
8 Suso F
Bench (12)
63 P. Cutrone
14 T. Bakayoko
20 I. Abate
4 J. Mauri
7 Samu Castillejo
11 F. Borini
16 A. Bertolacci
17 C. Zapata
25 Pepe Reina
33 M. Caldara
90 A. Donnarumma
93 D. Laxalt

Coach: G. Gattuso

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Marco Guida · 80 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.