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Serie A

Referee: Marco Guida

Atalanta

U S S T T

3–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

S U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,5

4,3

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 38%

44%

32%

Points per game

1,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

68%

40%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,6

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

59% Possession 41%

20 Shots 10

11 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

8 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 9. · Fiorentina 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	25	22	3	0	+38	69
2	Napoli	25	17	5	3	+28	56
3	Milan	26	13	9	4	+17	48
4	Inter	26	14	5	7	+16	47
5	Roma	26	12	8	6	+13	44
6	Torino	26	10	11	5	+11	41
7	Lazio	25	12	5	8	+9	41
8	Sampdoria	26	11	6	9	+10	39
9	Atalanta	25	11	5	9	+15	38
10	Fiorentina	25	8	12	5	+11	36
11	Sassuolo	26	7	10	9	-6	31
12	Genoa	26	7	9	10	-9	30
13	Parma	26	8	6	12	-12	30
14	Cagliari	26	6	9	11	-14	27
15	Udinese	25	6	7	12	-11	25
16	Spal	26	5	8	13	-16	23
17	Empoli	26	5	7	14	-18	22
18	Bologna	26	3	9	14	-20	18
19	Frosinone	26	3	8	15	-30	17
20	Chievo	26	1	10	15	-32	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	11	2	0	+20	35
2	Napoli	13	10	3	0	+21	33
3	Milan	14	9	3	2	+11	30
4	Inter	12	8	2	2	+13	26
5	Roma	12	7	4	1	+12	25
6	Torino	13	8	1	4	+8	25
7	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+9	24
8	Sampdoria	12	7	2	3	+11	23
9	Cagliari	13	5	6	2	+4	21
10	Genoa	14	5	6	3	+2	21
11	Fiorentina	12	5	5	2	+9	20
12	Atalanta	12	5	3	4	+7	18
13	Empoli	14	5	3	6	-1	18
14	Sassuolo	13	4	6	3	-2	18
15	Udinese	14	5	3	6	-4	18
16	Parma	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Spal	13	2	6	5	-7	12
18	Bologna	12	2	4	6	-9	10
19	Chievo	13	1	5	7	-13	8
20	Frosinone	12	0	5	7	-17	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	12	11	1	0	+18	34
2	Napoli	12	7	2	3	+7	23
3	Inter	14	6	3	5	+3	21
4	Atalanta	13	6	2	5	+8	20
5	Roma	14	5	4	5	+1	19
6	Milan	12	4	6	2	+6	18
7	Lazio	12	5	2	5	+0	17
8	Parma	13	5	2	6	-5	17
9	Torino	13	2	10	1	+3	16
10	Fiorentina	13	3	7	3	+2	16
11	Sampdoria	14	4	4	6	-1	16
12	Sassuolo	13	3	4	6	-4	13
13	Frosinone	14	3	3	8	-13	12
14	Spal	13	3	2	8	-9	11
15	Genoa	12	2	3	7	-11	9
16	Bologna	14	1	5	8	-11	8
17	Udinese	11	1	4	6	-7	7
18	Cagliari	13	1	3	9	-18	6
19	Chievo	13	0	5	8	-19	5
20	Empoli	12	0	4	8	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.