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Serie A

Referee: Fabrizio Pasqua

Juventus

T S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

T U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Juventus Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 55%

84%

25%

Points per game

2,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

56%

41%

Both score Ø 53%

47%

59%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,4

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

60% Possession 40%

18 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 3

9 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 7

4 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Juventus 1. · Fiorentina 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	32	27	3	2	+43	84
2	Napoli	32	20	7	5	+33	67
3	Inter	32	18	6	8	+24	60
4	Milan	33	15	11	7	+16	56
5	Roma	32	15	9	8	+12	54
6	Atalanta	32	15	8	9	+23	53
7	Torino	33	13	14	6	+13	53
8	Lazio	33	15	7	11	+12	52
9	Sampdoria	33	14	6	13	+9	48
10	Fiorentina	32	8	16	8	+7	40
11	Cagliari	33	10	10	13	-12	40
12	Sassuolo	33	8	14	11	-5	38
13	Spal	33	10	8	15	-13	38
14	Parma	33	9	9	15	-17	36
15	Bologna	33	8	10	15	-13	34
16	Genoa	33	8	10	15	-17	34
17	Udinese	33	8	9	16	-16	33
18	Empoli	33	7	8	18	-21	29
19	Frosinone	33	5	8	20	-34	23
20	Chievo	33	2	11	20	-44	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	14	2	0	+25	44
2	Napoli	16	11	4	1	+22	37
3	Milan	17	10	4	3	+11	34
4	Roma	16	9	5	2	+11	32
5	Lazio	17	9	4	4	+13	31
6	Inter	15	9	3	3	+14	30
7	Cagliari	17	8	6	3	+5	30
8	Sampdoria	16	9	2	5	+12	29
9	Torino	16	9	2	5	+8	29
10	Atalanta	16	7	5	4	+12	26
11	Udinese	17	7	4	6	-1	25
12	Empoli	17	7	3	7	-1	24
13	Genoa	17	6	6	5	-1	24
14	Fiorentina	16	5	8	3	+8	23
15	Sassuolo	17	5	8	4	+0	23
16	Bologna	16	6	4	6	+0	22
17	Spal	16	5	6	5	-4	21
18	Parma	17	4	6	7	-8	18
19	Chievo	16	1	5	10	-19	8
20	Frosinone	16	1	5	10	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	13	1	2	+18	40
2	Napoli	16	9	3	4	+11	30
3	Inter	17	9	3	5	+10	30
4	Atalanta	16	8	3	5	+11	27
5	Torino	17	4	12	1	+5	24
6	Milan	16	5	7	4	+5	22
7	Roma	16	6	4	6	+1	22
8	Lazio	16	6	3	7	-1	21
9	Sampdoria	17	5	4	8	-3	19
10	Parma	16	5	3	8	-9	18
11	Fiorentina	16	3	8	5	-1	17
12	Spal	17	5	2	10	-9	17
13	Sassuolo	16	3	6	7	-5	15
14	Frosinone	17	4	3	10	-14	15
15	Bologna	17	2	6	9	-13	12
16	Genoa	16	2	4	10	-16	10
17	Cagliari	16	2	4	10	-17	10
18	Chievo	17	1	6	10	-25	9
19	Udinese	16	1	5	10	-15	8
20	Empoli	16	0	5	11	-20	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.