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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Valeri

Parma

T T T U U

1–1

Full-time

Milan

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Parma Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 38%

28%

47%

Points per game

1,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

53%

47%

Both score Ø 52%

47%

56%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,6

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%

12 Shots 15

1 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

8 Corners 4

5 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Parma 14. · Milan 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	32	27	3	2	+43	84
2	Napoli	32	20	7	5	+33	67
3	Inter	32	18	6	8	+24	60
4	Milan	32	15	10	7	+16	55
5	Roma	32	15	9	8	+12	54
6	Atalanta	32	15	8	9	+23	53
7	Lazio	32	15	7	10	+13	52
8	Torino	32	12	14	6	+12	50
9	Sampdoria	32	14	6	12	+12	48
10	Fiorentina	32	8	16	8	+7	40
11	Sassuolo	32	8	13	11	-5	37
12	Cagliari	32	9	10	13	-13	37
13	Spal	32	9	8	15	-15	35
14	Parma	32	9	8	15	-17	35
15	Genoa	32	8	10	14	-16	34
16	Udinese	32	8	8	16	-16	32
17	Bologna	32	7	10	15	-16	31
18	Empoli	32	7	8	17	-19	29
19	Frosinone	32	5	8	19	-33	23
20	Chievo	32	1	11	20	-45	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	14	2	0	+25	44
2	Napoli	16	11	4	1	+22	37
3	Milan	17	10	4	3	+11	34
4	Roma	16	9	5	2	+11	32
5	Lazio	16	9	4	3	+14	31
6	Inter	15	9	3	3	+14	30
7	Sampdoria	16	9	2	5	+12	29
8	Torino	16	9	2	5	+8	29
9	Cagliari	16	7	6	3	+4	27
10	Atalanta	16	7	5	4	+12	26
11	Empoli	16	7	3	6	+1	24
12	Genoa	16	6	6	4	+0	24
13	Udinese	16	7	3	6	-1	24
14	Fiorentina	16	5	8	3	+8	23
15	Sassuolo	17	5	8	4	+0	23
16	Spal	16	5	6	5	-4	21
17	Bologna	15	5	4	6	-3	19
18	Parma	16	4	5	7	-8	17
19	Chievo	16	1	5	10	-19	8
20	Frosinone	16	1	5	10	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	13	1	2	+18	40
2	Napoli	16	9	3	4	+11	30
3	Inter	17	9	3	5	+10	30
4	Atalanta	16	8	3	5	+11	27
5	Roma	16	6	4	6	+1	22
6	Milan	15	5	6	4	+5	21
7	Torino	16	3	12	1	+4	21
8	Lazio	16	6	3	7	-1	21
9	Sampdoria	16	5	4	7	+0	19
10	Parma	16	5	3	8	-9	18
11	Fiorentina	16	3	8	5	-1	17
12	Frosinone	16	4	3	9	-13	15
13	Sassuolo	15	3	5	7	-5	14
14	Spal	16	4	2	10	-11	14
15	Bologna	17	2	6	9	-13	12
16	Genoa	16	2	4	10	-16	10
17	Cagliari	16	2	4	10	-17	10
18	Udinese	16	1	5	10	-15	8
19	Chievo	16	0	6	10	-26	6
20	Empoli	16	0	5	11	-20	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.