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Serie A
Referee: Piero Giacomelli
Parma
U U U U T
1–0
Full-time
Fiorentina
U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Parma Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,8
0,2
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
33%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
2,5
1,2
Scored
1,0
0,2
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,8
This season — Serie A · 36/36 matches
Win Ø 24%
25%
22%
Points per game
1,1
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 46%
53%
39%
Both score Ø 55%
53%
56%
Average goals
2,7
2,5
Scored
1,1
1,3
Conceded
1,6
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,6
+0,1
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

38% Possession 62%
12 Shots 18
3 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 7
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 7
15 Free kicks against 21
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Parma 16. · Fiorentina 13.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 36 28 5 3 +42 89
2 Napoli 36 23 7 6 +36 76
3 Inter 36 19 9 8 +26 66
4 Atalanta 36 19 8 9 +29 65
5 Roma 37 17 12 8 +17 63
6 Milan 36 17 11 8 +16 62
7 Torino 36 15 15 6 +16 60
8 Lazio 36 17 7 12 +12 58
9 Sampdoria 37 14 8 15 +7 50
10 Sassuolo 37 9 16 12 -5 43
11 Spal 37 11 9 17 -11 42
12 Cagliari 37 10 11 16 -17 41
13 Fiorentina 36 8 16 12 +3 40
14 Bologna 36 10 10 16 -9 40
15 Udinese 37 10 10 17 -15 40
16 Parma 36 9 11 16 -20 38
17 Genoa 37 8 13 16 -18 37
18 Empoli 36 9 8 19 -21 35
19 Frosinone 36 5 9 22 -38 24
20 Chievo 37 2 13 22 -50 19

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Dec -18 Fiorentina – Parma 0–1

Match report

Parma Fiorentina
28′
🔁 B. Dabo
↦ K. Mirallas
Half-time 0–0
A. Grassi 🔁
↦ Y. Gervinho
53′
M. Scozzarella 🔁
↦ L. Štulac
68′
69′
🔁 L. Muriel
↦ G. Simeone
0–1 Gerson
own goal
80′
83′
🔁 D. Vlahović
↦ B. Dabo
F. Dimarco 🔁
↦ M. Sprocati
84′
90′
🟨 Marco Benassi
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Parma

4-3-3
55 L. Sepe G
23 M. Gazzola D
2 S. Iacoponi D
28 R. Gagliolo D
95 A. Bastoni D
17 A. Barillà M
87 J. Kucka M
5 L. Štulac M
93 M. Sprocati F
27 Y. Gervinho F
9 F. Ceravolo F
Bench (10)
88 A. Grassi
21 M. Scozzarella
3 F. Dimarco
26 L. Siligardi
33 J. Dezi
31 Gabriel Brazão
14 Pepín
1 P. Frattali
18 M. Gobbi
77 J. Biabiany

Coach: R. D'Aversa

Fiorentina

3-5-1-1
1 A. Lafont G
31 Vitor Hugo D
5 F. Ceccherini D
3 C. Biraghi M
4 N. Milenković D
17 J. Veretout M
24 M. Benassi M
8 Gerson M
11 K. Mirallas M
9 G. Simeone F
25 F. Chiesa F
Bench (12)
14 B. Dabo
29 L. Muriel
28 D. Vlahović
26 E. Fernandes
16 D. Hancko
20 G. Pezzella
23 P. Terracciano
30 G. Antzoulas
19 Cristóbal Montiel
33 F. Brancolini
6 C. Nørgaard
32 G. Ferrarini

Coach: V. Montella

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Piero Giacomelli · 68 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.