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Ligue 1
Referee: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj
Caen
S S T T S
2–1
Full-time
Montpellier
T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caen Montpellier
Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
60%
0%
Points per game
1,8
0,2
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
60%
20%
Both score Ø 30%
40%
20%
Average goals
2,6
1,4
Scored
1,2
0,2
Conceded
1,4
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-1,0
This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
60%
0%
Points per game
1,8
0,2
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
60%
20%
Both score Ø 30%
40%
20%
Average goals
2,6
1,4
Scored
1,2
0,2
Conceded
1,4
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

43% Possession 57%
16 Shots 3
6 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 5
3 Offside 1
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Caen 5. · Montpellier 19.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 6 4 2 0 +7 14
2 Rennes 6 4 1 1 +5 13
3 Reims 6 3 2 1 +4 11
4 St Etienne 5 3 1 1 +2 10
5 Caen 5 3 0 2 -1 9
6 Lyon 5 2 2 1 +4 8
7 Angers 5 2 2 1 +2 8
8 Monaco 5 2 2 1 -1 8
9 Bastia 5 2 1 2 +0 7
10 Lille 6 1 4 1 +0 7
11 Nantes 5 2 1 2 -2 7
12 Marseille 5 2 0 3 +5 6
13 Bordeaux 5 1 3 1 +1 6
14 Guingamp 5 2 0 3 -2 6
15 Nice 5 1 2 2 -1 5
16 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 -2 5
17 Lorient 5 1 2 2 -2 5
18 Troyes 5 0 3 2 -8 3
19 Montpellier 5 0 1 4 -5 1
20 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 5 0 1 4 -6 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Caen Montpellier
1–0 R. Rodelin
H. Bazile
19′
Jordan Adeoti 🟨
31′
32′
J. Martin 1–1
41′
🟨 Mustapha Yatabare
Half-time 1–1
46′
🟨 Ryad Boudebouz
Andy Delort 🟨
47′
60′
🔁 K. Bérigaud
↦ M. Yatabaré
J. Louis 🔁
↦ H. Bazile
72′
72′
🔁 Q. Cornette
↦ J. Martin
77′
🔁 W. Rémy
↦ R. Boudebouz
J. Nkololo 🔁
↦ R. Rodelin
81′
87′
🟨 Mathieu Deplagne
89′
🟨 Paul Lasne
2–1 J. Louis
93′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Caen

1 R. Vercoutre G
5 A. Yahia D
15 E. Imorou D
12 D. Appiah D
2 N. Seube M
11 V. Bessat D
25 J. Féret M
18 J. Adéoti M
23 R. Rodelin F
20 H. Bazile F
9 A. Delort F
Bench (7)
14 J. Louis
8 J. Nkololo
19 J. Leborgne
21 C. Alhadhur
22 A. Raineau
29 F. Le Joncour
30 P. Reulet

Montpellier

30 J. Ligali G
3 D. Congré D
4 Hilton D
25 M. Deplagne D
24 J. Roussillon D
6 J. Marveaux M
10 R. Boudebouz M
17 P. Lasne M
14 B. Dabo M
8 J. Martin M
9 M. Yatabaré F
Bench (7)
26 K. Bérigaud
31 Q. Cornette
21 W. Rémy
33 A. Ribelin
1 L. Pionnier
15 R. Bensebaini
32 J. Deza

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj · 37 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
15,7 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.