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Ligue 1

Referee: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj

Bastia

S T T T T

3–0

Full-time

Toulouse

U T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

29%

14%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

71%

43%

Both score Ø 79%

71%

86%

Average goals

3,1

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

38% Possession 62%

9 Shots 18

6 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 18

0 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bastia 15. · Toulouse 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	2	0	+13	20
2	St Etienne	7	5	1	1	+5	16
3	Reims	8	4	3	1	+5	15
4	Rennes	7	4	2	1	+5	14
5	Lyon	7	3	3	1	+6	12
6	Angers	7	3	3	1	+3	12
7	Caen	7	4	0	3	-2	12
8	Nice	7	3	2	2	+6	11
9	Lorient	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Monaco	7	3	2	2	-1	11
11	Guingamp	7	3	0	4	-4	9
12	Marseille	7	2	2	3	+5	8
13	Lille	7	1	4	2	-1	7
14	Toulouse	7	1	4	2	-2	7
15	Bastia	7	2	1	4	-4	7
16	Bordeaux	7	1	4	2	-4	7
17	Nantes	7	2	1	4	-7	7
18	Troyes	7	0	3	4	-10	3
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	7	0	2	5	-7	2
20	Montpellier	7	0	1	6	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reims	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Marseille	4	2	1	1	+8	7
3	Paris SG	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Lorient	4	2	1	1	+3	7
5	St Etienne	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Rennes	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Nice	4	2	0	2	+4	6
8	Bastia	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Guingamp	3	2	0	1	+2	6
10	Toulouse	4	1	3	0	+1	6
11	Angers	4	1	3	0	+1	6
12	Caen	3	2	0	1	-2	6
13	Nantes	4	2	0	2	-3	6
14	Lyon	4	1	2	1	+1	5
15	Bordeaux	3	1	1	1	+1	4
16	Lille	3	1	1	1	+0	4
17	Troyes	5	0	3	2	-3	3
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Monaco	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Montpellier	4	0	0	4	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+3	10
3	St Etienne	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Lyon	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Rennes	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Angers	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Caen	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Nice	3	1	2	0	+2	5
9	Reims	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Lorient	3	1	1	1	-2	4
11	Lille	4	0	3	1	-1	3
12	Bordeaux	4	0	3	1	-5	3
13	Guingamp	4	1	0	3	-6	3
14	Montpellier	3	0	1	2	-2	1
15	Toulouse	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Marseille	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Nantes	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Bastia	4	0	1	3	-6	1
20	Troyes	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.