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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Bastien

Paris SG

S U U S S

2–1

Full-time

Marseille

T S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

2,3

2,2

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 50%

75%

25%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

50%

38%

Both score Ø 44%

38%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

2,1

1,6

Conceded

0,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

58% Possession 42%

16 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 1

7 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Marseille 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	2	0	+13	20
2	Angers	9	5	3	1	+5	18
3	Caen	9	6	0	3	+1	18
4	Rennes	9	4	4	1	+5	16
5	St Etienne	9	5	1	3	+1	16
6	Lyon	9	4	3	2	+5	15
7	Reims	9	4	3	2	+4	15
8	Nice	8	4	2	2	+9	14
9	Lorient	9	4	2	3	+1	14
10	Monaco	9	3	4	2	-1	13
11	Guingamp	9	4	1	4	-3	13
12	Lille	9	2	4	3	+0	10
13	Bastia	9	3	1	5	-2	10
14	Bordeaux	9	2	4	3	-3	10
15	Nantes	8	3	1	4	-6	10
16	Marseille	8	2	2	4	+4	8
17	Toulouse	9	1	5	3	-5	8
18	Montpellier	9	1	1	7	-8	4
19	Troyes	9	0	4	5	-11	4
20	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	9	0	3	6	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Caen	5	4	0	1	+1	12
2	Reims	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Lorient	5	3	1	1	+4	10
4	Bastia	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Angers	5	2	3	0	+2	9
6	Rennes	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Marseille	5	2	1	2	+7	7
9	Paris SG	3	2	1	0	+5	7
10	Bordeaux	4	2	1	1	+3	7
11	Guingamp	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	Lille	5	2	1	2	+1	7
13	St Etienne	4	2	1	1	+0	7
14	Nice	4	2	0	2	+4	6
15	Toulouse	4	1	3	0	+1	6
16	Nantes	4	2	0	2	-3	6
17	Montpellier	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Troyes	6	0	3	3	-4	3
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Monaco	4	0	2	2	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Monaco	5	3	2	0	+3	11
3	Angers	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	St Etienne	5	3	0	2	+1	9
5	Nice	4	2	2	0	+5	8
6	Rennes	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Lyon	4	2	1	1	+3	7
8	Caen	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Guingamp	5	2	0	3	-5	6
10	Reims	5	1	2	2	-1	5
11	Lorient	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Nantes	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Lille	4	0	3	1	-1	3
14	Bordeaux	5	0	3	2	-6	3
15	Toulouse	5	0	2	3	-6	2
16	Marseille	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Montpellier	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	5	0	1	4	-6	1
19	Bastia	5	0	1	4	-7	1
20	Troyes	3	0	1	2	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.