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Ligue 1

Referee: Francois Letexier

Paris SG

S S U S S

3–0

Full-time

Metz

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/1 matches

Win Ø 92%

83%

100%

Points per game

2,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

17%

100%

Average goals

3,5

5,0

Scored

3,3

3,0

Conceded

0,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+3,2

+1,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

1,0

5,0

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

0,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%

28 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 6

8 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

15 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 10. · Metz 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Nice	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Toulouse	2	1	1	0	+3	4
4	Guingamp	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Bastia	2	1	0	1	+2	3
7	St Etienne	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Metz	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Rennes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Lille	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Nantes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Caen	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Montpellier	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Bordeaux	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Marseille	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Angers	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Dijon	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Lorient	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Nancy	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	St Etienne	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Bordeaux	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Metz	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Caen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Guingamp	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Montpellier	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Nice	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Lille	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Monaco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Marseille	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Angers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Dijon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Bastia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Lorient	1	0	0	1	-3	0
19	Nancy	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bastia	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Nice	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Nantes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Guingamp	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	St Etienne	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Lille	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Lorient	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Marseille	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Angers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Rennes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Dijon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Montpellier	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Caen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Nancy	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	Bordeaux	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.