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Ligue 1
Referee: Ruddy Buquet
Lyon
S S S S T
3–1
Full-time
Marseille
S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,7
Scored
2,5
1,7
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,7
This season — Ligue 1 · 19/20 matches
Win Ø 49%
58%
40%
Points per game
1,8
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
58%
50%
Both score Ø 46%
47%
45%
Average goals
3,1
2,3
Scored
1,9
1,2
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%
20 Shots 10
8 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 5
6 Corners 8
5 Offside 0
14 Free kicks against 18
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lyon 4. · Marseille 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Monaco 21 15 3 3 +43 48
2 Nice 21 13 7 1 +21 46
3 Paris SG 21 14 3 4 +26 45
4 Lyon 19 11 1 7 +14 34
5 Guingamp 21 8 7 6 +4 31
6 St Etienne 21 7 9 5 +3 30
7 Marseille 20 8 6 6 +0 30
8 Rennes 21 8 5 8 -4 29
9 Bordeaux 21 7 8 6 -5 29
10 Toulouse 21 7 5 9 -1 26
11 Nantes 21 7 4 10 -14 25
12 Nancy 20 6 6 8 -7 24
13 Montpellier 21 5 8 8 -5 23
14 Lille 21 6 5 10 -7 23
15 Metz 20 6 5 9 -16 23
16 Dijon 21 4 9 8 -3 21
17 Bastia 21 5 6 10 -7 21
18 Caen 20 6 3 11 -12 21
19 Angers 21 5 5 11 -10 20
20 Lorient 21 5 3 13 -20 18

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lyon Marseille
Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa 🟨
37′
1–0 M. Valbuena
J. Morel
43′
Half-time 1–0
48′
🟨 Rod Fanni
2–0 A. Lacazette
61′
66′
🔁 R. Cabella
↦ B. Sarr
66′
🔁 R. Alessandrini
↦ M. Lopez
67′
Dória 2–1
L. Tousart 🔁
↦ N. Fekir
71′
3–1 A. Lacazette
75′
M. Depay 🔁
↦ M. Valbuena
79′
85′
🟨 Hiroki Sakai
J. Ferri 🔁
↦ C. Tolisso
85′
89′
🔁 S. Khaoui
↦ F. Thauvin
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Lyon

4-2-3-1
1 Anthony Lopes G
15 J. Morel D
2 M. Yanga-Mbiwa D
20 Rafael D
4 E. Mammana D
28 M. Valbuena M
21 M. Gonalons M
8 C. Tolisso M
10 A. Lacazette F
18 N. Fekir M
27 M. Cornet F
Bench (7)
29 L. Tousart
9 M. Depay
12 J. Ferri
19 J. Mateta
31 M. Rybus
30 M. Gorgelin
13 C. Jallet

Coach: B. Génésio

Marseille

4-3-3
16 Y. Pelé G
24 R. Fanni D
6 Rolando D
2 H. Sakai D
3 Dória D
26 F. Thauvin M
8 M. Sanson M
27 M. Lopez M
29 A. Zambo Anguissa
18 B. Gomis F
17 B. Sarr D
Bench (7)
7 R. Cabella
11 R. Alessandrini
20 S. Khaoui
1 B. Samba
4 K. Rekik
23 Z. Machach
33 J. Da Costa

Coach: R. Garcia

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Ruddy Buquet · 80 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.