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Ligue 1

Referee: Mikael Lesage

Toulouse

U U T U S

0–0

Full-time

Marseille

T S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,2

3,0

Scored

0,3

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 37%

32%

42%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

42%

52%

Both score Ø 45%

42%

48%

Average goals

2,1

2,6

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

39% Possession 61%

11 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 7

1 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 10. · Marseille 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	31	23	5	3	+62	74
2	Nice	32	20	10	2	+26	70
3	Paris SG	30	21	5	4	+39	68
4	Lyon	32	17	3	12	+26	54
5	Bordeaux	32	13	10	9	+7	49
6	Marseille	31	13	8	10	+6	47
7	St Etienne	30	11	11	8	+10	44
8	Guingamp	31	11	8	12	-1	41
9	Nantes	31	11	8	12	-15	41
10	Toulouse	31	10	10	11	+0	40
11	Rennes	32	9	13	10	-8	40
12	Angers	32	11	6	15	-9	39
13	Lille	32	10	7	15	-8	37
14	Montpellier	32	9	9	14	-10	36
15	Metz	31	9	8	14	-30	35
16	Caen	32	9	5	18	-23	32
17	Nancy	32	8	7	17	-17	31
18	Lorient	32	9	4	19	-25	31
19	Dijon	32	6	11	15	-10	29
20	Bastia	32	6	10	16	-20	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	15	13	1	1	+41	40
2	Nice	16	12	4	0	+21	40
3	Paris SG	15	10	5	0	+24	35
4	Marseille	16	10	4	2	+14	34
5	Lyon	16	11	0	5	+20	33
6	Guingamp	15	9	3	3	+11	30
7	Rennes	16	8	6	2	+9	30
8	Bordeaux	17	8	5	4	+6	29
9	Toulouse	15	8	3	4	+11	27
10	St Etienne	15	7	6	2	+11	27
11	Montpellier	16	7	5	4	+9	26
12	Angers	16	7	5	4	+7	26
13	Metz	15	6	5	4	-7	23
14	Caen	16	7	2	7	-9	23
15	Nantes	16	6	4	6	-8	22
16	Dijon	16	5	5	6	+3	20
17	Nancy	16	6	2	8	-1	20
18	Lorient	16	6	2	8	-8	20
19	Bastia	16	3	9	4	+0	18
20	Lille	16	5	3	8	-4	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	16	10	4	2	+21	34
2	Paris SG	15	11	0	4	+15	33
3	Nice	16	8	6	2	+5	30
4	Lyon	16	6	3	7	+6	21
5	Bordeaux	15	5	5	5	+1	20
6	Lille	16	5	4	7	-4	19
7	Nantes	15	5	4	6	-7	19
8	St Etienne	15	4	5	6	-1	17
9	Marseille	15	3	4	8	-8	13
10	Toulouse	16	2	7	7	-11	13
11	Angers	16	4	1	11	-16	13
12	Metz	16	3	3	10	-23	12
13	Guingamp	16	2	5	9	-12	11
14	Nancy	16	2	5	9	-16	11
15	Lorient	16	3	2	11	-17	11
16	Rennes	16	1	7	8	-17	10
17	Montpellier	16	2	4	10	-19	10
18	Bastia	16	3	1	12	-20	10
19	Dijon	16	1	6	9	-13	9
20	Caen	16	2	3	11	-14	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.