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Eredivisie

Referee: Jeroen Manschot

Vitesse

S U S S S

1–2

Full-time

Excelsior

S T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitesse Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 20/23 matches

Win Ø 38%

45%

30%

Points per game

1,7

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

60%

61%

Both score Ø 66%

70%

61%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

56% Possession 44%

11 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitesse 7. · Excelsior 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	23	20	1	2	+37	61
2	Ajax	23	17	3	3	+44	54
3	AZ Alkmaar	23	14	5	4	+21	47
4	Feyenoord	23	11	6	6	+21	39
5	Zwolle	23	11	6	6	+1	39
6	Utrecht	21	9	7	5	-1	34
7	Vitesse	20	9	6	5	+12	33
8	Heerenveen	22	8	7	7	-2	31
9	VVV Venlo	24	7	10	7	-5	31
10	Den Haag	21	8	5	8	-3	29
11	Heracles	23	7	6	10	-16	27
12	Excelsior	23	7	5	11	-7	26
13	Groningen	24	5	9	10	-5	24
14	Willem II	23	5	5	13	-14	20
15	NAC Breda	23	5	5	13	-14	20
16	Roda	23	4	5	14	-24	17
17	Twente	23	4	4	15	-17	16
18	Sparta Rotterdam	23	3	5	15	-28	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	11	0	0	+22	33
2	Ajax	12	10	0	2	+23	30
3	Heracles	12	7	3	2	+6	24
4	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	2	3	+9	23
5	Zwolle	11	7	2	2	+8	23
6	Feyenoord	11	6	3	2	+11	21
7	Utrecht	11	5	5	1	+2	20
8	Groningen	12	4	6	2	+5	18
9	Den Haag	11	4	3	4	+1	15
10	Heerenveen	11	4	3	4	-5	15
11	Vitesse	9	3	4	2	+4	13
12	VVV Venlo	12	3	4	5	-4	13
13	NAC Breda	11	4	1	6	-6	13
14	Willem II	12	3	3	6	-1	12
15	Roda	11	3	3	5	-5	12
16	Twente	11	3	2	6	-6	11
17	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	2	7	-12	11
18	Excelsior	12	2	4	6	-6	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	9	1	2	+15	28
2	Ajax	11	7	3	1	+21	24
3	AZ Alkmaar	11	7	3	1	+12	24
4	Vitesse	11	6	2	3	+8	20
5	Feyenoord	12	5	3	4	+10	18
6	VVV Venlo	12	4	6	2	-1	18
7	Heerenveen	11	4	4	3	+3	16
8	Excelsior	11	5	1	5	-1	16
9	Zwolle	12	4	4	4	-7	16
10	Utrecht	10	4	2	4	-3	14
11	Den Haag	10	4	2	4	-4	14
12	Willem II	11	2	2	7	-13	8
13	NAC Breda	12	1	4	7	-8	7
14	Groningen	12	1	3	8	-10	6
15	Twente	12	1	2	9	-11	5
16	Roda	12	1	2	9	-19	5
17	Sparta Rotterdam	11	0	3	8	-16	3
18	Heracles	11	0	3	8	-22	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.