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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota da Silva

Benfica

S U S T S

3–0

Full-time

Arouca

S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 58%

75%

40%

Points per game

2,4

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

55%

40%

Both score Ø 43%

40%

45%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,1

Conceded

0,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

56% Possession 44%

13 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 17

0 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 1. · Arouca 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	20	15	3	2	+32	48
2	Porto	20	14	5	1	+28	47
3	Sp Lisbon	20	11	5	4	+14	38
4	Sp Braga	20	11	4	5	+14	37
5	Guimaraes	20	10	5	5	+7	35
6	Maritimo	20	9	4	7	+2	31
7	Chaves	20	6	10	4	+2	28
8	Vitoria Setubal	20	8	4	8	+1	28
9	Rio Ave	20	8	3	9	-3	27
10	Arouca	20	8	3	9	-4	27
11	Boavista	20	6	7	7	-1	25
12	Belenenses	20	6	6	8	-5	24
13	Feirense	20	6	4	10	-17	22
14	Pacos Ferreira	20	5	5	10	-11	20
15	Moreirense	20	5	3	12	-13	18
16	Estoril	20	4	4	12	-11	16
17	Tondela	20	3	5	12	-18	14
18	Nacional	20	3	4	13	-17	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	1	0	+18	31
2	Benfica	10	8	2	0	+22	26
3	Sp Braga	11	8	2	1	+15	26
4	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+15	25
5	Maritimo	10	6	2	2	+6	20
6	Vitoria Setubal	10	6	1	3	+6	19
7	Chaves	11	4	6	1	+4	18
8	Pacos Ferreira	10	4	4	2	+2	16
9	Rio Ave	10	5	1	4	+0	16
10	Arouca	11	5	1	5	+0	16
11	Feirense	11	4	2	5	-8	14
12	Guimaraes	9	3	4	2	+2	13
13	Belenenses	10	3	4	3	-1	13
14	Boavista	9	3	2	4	+1	11
15	Tondela	9	3	2	4	-1	11
16	Moreirense	9	2	3	4	-3	9
17	Nacional	10	2	3	5	-7	9
18	Estoril	9	2	1	6	-5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	7	1	2	+10	22
2	Guimaraes	11	7	1	3	+5	22
3	Porto	9	4	4	1	+10	16
4	Boavista	11	3	5	3	-2	14
5	Sp Lisbon	10	3	4	3	-1	13
6	Sp Braga	9	3	2	4	-1	11
7	Rio Ave	10	3	2	5	-3	11
8	Arouca	9	3	2	4	-4	11
9	Belenenses	10	3	2	5	-4	11
10	Maritimo	10	3	2	5	-4	11
11	Chaves	9	2	4	3	-2	10
12	Vitoria Setubal	10	2	3	5	-5	9
13	Estoril	11	2	3	6	-6	9
14	Moreirense	11	3	0	8	-10	9
15	Feirense	9	2	2	5	-9	8
16	Nacional	10	1	1	8	-10	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	10	1	1	8	-13	4
18	Tondela	11	0	3	8	-17	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.