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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota da Silva

Benfica

S S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Arouca

S U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

2,7

1,8

Conceded

0,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 53%

78%

28%

Points per game

2,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

67%

44%

Both score Ø 45%

28%

61%

Average goals

3,3

2,4

Scored

2,6

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,9

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

56% Possession 44%

17 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

2 Corners 6

1 Offside 5

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 2. · Arouca 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	18	14	3	1	+26	45
2	Benfica	18	14	1	3	+35	43
3	Porto	18	12	4	2	+25	40
4	Sp Braga	18	9	5	4	+15	32
5	Pacos Ferreira	18	8	5	5	+7	29
6	Guimaraes	18	7	5	6	-3	26
7	Rio Ave	18	7	4	7	+1	25
8	Vitoria Setubal	19	6	7	6	-5	25
9	Arouca	18	5	9	4	+2	24
10	Estoril	19	6	5	8	-4	23
11	U. Madeira	19	6	5	8	-8	23
12	Maritimo	18	6	3	9	-10	21
13	Belenenses	18	5	6	7	-15	21
14	Moreirense	19	5	5	9	-9	20
15	Nacional	19	4	5	10	-10	17
16	Academica	19	4	5	10	-16	17
17	Boavista	18	3	4	11	-14	13
18	Tondela	18	2	3	13	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	8	0	1	+24	24
2	Porto	9	7	2	0	+15	23
3	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+12	23
4	Rio Ave	10	6	0	4	+3	18
5	U. Madeira	10	5	3	2	+3	18
6	Sp Braga	8	5	2	1	+14	17
7	Pacos Ferreira	9	5	2	2	+8	17
8	Estoril	9	4	3	2	+4	15
9	Belenenses	8	4	3	1	+2	15
10	Academica	10	4	3	3	-3	15
11	Maritimo	9	4	2	3	+5	14
12	Arouca	9	4	2	3	+2	14
13	Nacional	9	3	3	3	+0	12
14	Guimaraes	10	3	3	4	+0	12
15	Vitoria Setubal	10	2	6	2	-6	12
16	Moreirense	9	2	3	4	-3	9
17	Boavista	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Tondela	9	1	1	7	-11	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+14	22
2	Benfica	9	6	1	2	+11	19
3	Porto	9	5	2	2	+10	17
4	Sp Braga	10	4	3	3	+1	15
5	Guimaraes	8	4	2	2	-3	14
6	Vitoria Setubal	9	4	1	4	+1	13
7	Pacos Ferreira	9	3	3	3	-1	12
8	Moreirense	10	3	2	5	-6	11
9	Arouca	9	1	7	1	+0	10
10	Estoril	10	2	2	6	-8	8
11	Rio Ave	8	1	4	3	-2	7
12	Maritimo	9	2	1	6	-15	7
13	Belenenses	10	1	3	6	-17	6
14	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-6	5
15	Boavista	9	1	2	6	-8	5
16	Nacional	10	1	2	7	-10	5
17	U. Madeira	9	1	2	6	-11	5
18	Academica	9	0	2	7	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.