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Primeira Liga

Referee: Goncalo Martins

Benfica

U S S S U

2–1

Full-time

Portimonense

S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Portimonense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/4 matches

Win Ø 46%

67%

25%

Points per game

2,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

67%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,8

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+2,2

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

75%

25%

Points per game

2,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

73% Possession 27%

17 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 3

6 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Benfica 3. · Portimonense 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+10	15
2	Porto	4	4	0	0	+9	12
3	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+8	10
4	Rio Ave	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	Maritimo	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Feirense	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Sp Braga	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Estoril	4	2	0	2	-1	6
9	Tondela	4	1	1	2	+1	4
10	Belenenses	4	1	1	2	-5	4
11	Guimaraes	4	1	1	2	-7	4
12	Vitoria Setubal	4	0	3	1	-1	3
13	Boavista	4	1	0	3	-2	3
14	Portimonense	4	1	0	3	-3	3
15	Pacos Ferreira	4	0	2	2	-2	2
16	Moreirense	4	0	2	2	-6	2
17	Chaves	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Aves	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Rio Ave	3	2	1	0	+3	7
2	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Maritimo	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Belenenses	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Feirense	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Boavista	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	-4	3
13	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Aves	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Tondela	2	1	1	0	+3	4
4	Feirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Estoril	3	1	0	2	-4	3
10	Chaves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
11	Aves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-3	1
14	Guimaraes	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Boavista	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Portimonense	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Belenenses	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.