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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Moreirense

T T T S T

2–1

Full-time

Belenenses

T S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 23%

19%

27%

Points per game

0,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

46%

35%

Both score Ø 39%

42%

35%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

17 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 4

4 Offside 5

19 Free kicks against 10

7 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 17. · Belenenses 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	27	22	4	1	+56	70
2	Benfica	27	21	5	1	+55	68
3	Sp Lisbon	26	19	5	2	+34	62
4	Sp Braga	26	19	1	6	+35	58
5	Rio Ave	26	12	4	10	+0	40
6	Maritimo	27	11	6	10	-11	39
7	Chaves	26	10	6	10	-7	36
8	Boavista	27	11	3	13	-9	36
9	Portimonense	27	8	7	12	-7	31
10	Guimaraes	26	9	3	14	-15	30
11	Tondela	27	8	5	14	-9	29
12	Belenenses	26	7	8	11	-12	29
13	Aves	26	6	7	13	-10	25
14	Vitoria Setubal	27	5	10	12	-19	25
15	Pacos Ferreira	27	6	7	14	-19	25
16	Feirense	27	7	2	18	-14	23
17	Moreirense	26	5	7	14	-18	22
18	Estoril	27	6	4	17	-30	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	13	1	0	+35	40
2	Benfica	13	12	1	0	+37	37
3	Sp Braga	14	12	0	2	+24	36
4	Sp Lisbon	13	11	2	0	+23	35
5	Maritimo	13	8	3	2	+6	27
6	Boavista	13	9	0	4	+5	27
7	Rio Ave	13	8	2	3	+10	26
8	Vitoria Setubal	14	5	6	3	+2	21
9	Portimonense	13	6	2	5	+2	20
10	Belenenses	13	5	5	3	+2	20
11	Guimaraes	12	6	2	4	-6	20
12	Pacos Ferreira	13	5	4	4	-1	19
13	Chaves	13	4	5	4	+0	17
14	Feirense	14	5	1	8	-5	16
15	Tondela	14	4	2	8	-5	14
16	Estoril	14	4	2	8	-12	14
17	Aves	13	3	3	7	-5	12
18	Moreirense	13	2	6	5	-5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	9	4	1	+18	31
2	Porto	13	9	3	1	+21	30
3	Sp Lisbon	13	8	3	2	+11	27
4	Sp Braga	12	7	1	4	+11	22
5	Chaves	13	6	1	6	-7	19
6	Tondela	13	4	3	6	-4	15
7	Rio Ave	13	4	2	7	-10	14
8	Aves	13	3	4	6	-5	13
9	Maritimo	14	3	3	8	-17	12
10	Portimonense	14	2	5	7	-9	11
11	Guimaraes	14	3	1	10	-9	10
12	Moreirense	13	3	1	9	-13	10
13	Boavista	14	2	3	9	-14	9
14	Belenenses	13	2	3	8	-14	9
15	Estoril	13	2	2	9	-18	8
16	Feirense	13	2	1	10	-9	7
17	Pacos Ferreira	14	1	3	10	-18	6
18	Vitoria Setubal	13	0	4	9	-21	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.