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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota da Silva

Chaves

U T U U S

1–3

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 44%

23%

65%

Points per game

0,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

42%

65%

Both score Ø 54%

42%

65%

Average goals

2,1

3,0

Scored

0,7

1,9

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

38% Possession 62%

8 Shots 19

2 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 11

5 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Chaves 17. · Sp Lisbon 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	27	21	3	3	+39	66
2	Benfica	26	20	3	3	+49	63
3	Sp Braga	27	18	4	5	+19	58
4	Sp Lisbon	26	17	4	5	+23	55
5	Moreirense	27	14	3	10	-1	45
6	Guimaraes	26	12	6	8	+8	42
7	Belenenses	26	9	11	6	+6	38
8	Santa Clara	26	9	5	12	-1	32
9	Rio Ave	26	8	8	10	-2	32
10	Portimonense	27	9	5	13	-7	32
11	Maritimo	26	8	3	15	-15	27
12	Aves	26	7	5	14	-13	26
13	Boavista	26	7	5	14	-14	26
14	Nacional	26	7	5	14	-27	26
15	Vitoria Setubal	26	5	10	11	-7	25
16	Tondela	26	6	7	13	-11	25
17	Chaves	26	6	6	14	-17	24
18	Feirense	26	2	9	15	-29	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	12	1	1	+20	37
2	Sp Braga	14	11	1	2	+15	34
3	Porto	13	11	0	2	+24	33
4	Benfica	12	9	2	1	+30	29
5	Guimaraes	13	8	3	2	+9	27
6	Moreirense	13	7	3	3	+2	24
7	Portimonense	14	6	4	4	+6	22
8	Belenenses	13	5	4	4	+5	19
9	Boavista	13	6	1	6	+0	19
10	Rio Ave	13	4	5	4	+0	17
11	Nacional	14	5	2	7	-5	17
12	Aves	14	4	3	7	-3	15
13	Tondela	13	4	3	6	-5	15
14	Vitoria Setubal	13	3	5	5	-1	14
15	Santa Clara	13	4	2	7	-3	14
16	Chaves	13	3	5	5	-3	14
17	Maritimo	12	4	2	6	-5	14
18	Feirense	12	1	5	6	-7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	11	1	2	+19	34
2	Porto	14	10	3	1	+15	33
3	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+4	24
4	Moreirense	14	7	0	7	-3	21
5	Belenenses	13	4	7	2	+1	19
6	Sp Lisbon	12	5	3	4	+3	18
7	Santa Clara	13	5	3	5	+2	18
8	Guimaraes	13	4	3	6	-1	15
9	Rio Ave	13	4	3	6	-2	15
10	Maritimo	14	4	1	9	-10	13
11	Vitoria Setubal	13	2	5	6	-6	11
12	Aves	12	3	2	7	-10	11
13	Tondela	13	2	4	7	-6	10
14	Portimonense	13	3	1	9	-13	10
15	Chaves	13	3	1	9	-14	10
16	Nacional	12	2	3	7	-22	9
17	Boavista	13	1	4	8	-14	7
18	Feirense	14	1	4	9	-22	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.