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Eredivisie

Referee: Allard Lindhout

Heerenveen

U S S S T

1–0

Full-time

Excelsior

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

4,3

2,2

Scored

2,3

0,5

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,2

This season — Eredivisie · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 29%

31%

27%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

73%

62%

Both score Ø 66%

77%

54%

Average goals

4,4

3,5

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-1,0

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

59% Possession 41%

13 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 9. · Excelsior 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	26	21	4	1	+63	67
2	Ajax	26	20	2	4	+66	62
3	Feyenoord	26	14	5	7	+22	47
4	AZ Alkmaar	26	14	5	7	+22	47
5	Heracles	25	13	3	9	+3	42
6	Willem II	27	11	4	12	-6	37
7	Vitesse	24	9	8	7	+7	35
8	Utrecht	23	9	7	7	+6	34
9	Heerenveen	26	8	9	9	-3	33
10	Groningen	24	9	5	10	+0	32
11	VVV Venlo	26	9	5	12	-12	32
12	Zwolle	26	8	5	13	-11	29
13	Den Haag	27	7	8	12	-17	29
14	For Sittard	27	8	5	14	-19	29
15	Excelsior	26	7	5	14	-27	26
16	De Graafschap	27	7	4	16	-25	25
17	FC Emmen	26	6	7	13	-30	25
18	NAC Breda	26	4	5	17	-39	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	12	1	0	+42	37
2	Ajax	13	11	2	0	+46	35
3	Feyenoord	13	11	0	2	+24	33
4	AZ Alkmaar	13	8	3	2	+18	27
5	Heracles	12	9	0	3	+14	27
6	Vitesse	11	6	4	1	+7	22
7	For Sittard	13	6	3	4	+6	21
8	VVV Venlo	13	6	3	4	+6	21
9	Utrecht	12	5	4	3	+8	19
10	Groningen	12	6	1	5	+5	19
11	Excelsior	14	5	3	6	-10	18
12	De Graafschap	14	5	2	7	-1	17
13	Willem II	13	5	2	6	-2	17
14	Den Haag	14	4	4	6	-10	16
15	NAC Breda	13	4	3	6	-8	15
16	Zwolle	13	3	3	7	-7	12
17	Heerenveen	13	2	5	6	-10	11
18	FC Emmen	13	2	5	6	-10	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	9	3	1	+21	30
2	Ajax	13	9	0	4	+20	27
3	Heerenveen	13	6	4	3	+7	22
4	AZ Alkmaar	13	6	2	5	+4	20
5	Willem II	14	6	2	6	-4	20
6	Zwolle	13	5	2	6	-4	17
7	Utrecht	11	4	3	4	-2	15
8	Heracles	13	4	3	6	-11	15
9	Feyenoord	13	3	5	5	-2	14
10	FC Emmen	13	4	2	7	-20	14
11	Vitesse	13	3	4	6	+0	13
12	Groningen	12	3	4	5	-5	13
13	Den Haag	13	3	4	6	-7	13
14	VVV Venlo	13	3	2	8	-18	11
15	Excelsior	12	2	2	8	-17	8
16	De Graafschap	13	2	2	9	-24	8
17	For Sittard	14	2	2	10	-25	8
18	NAC Breda	13	0	2	11	-31	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.