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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Chaves

U S T S U

2–2

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 47%

31%

63%

Points per game

1,4

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

31%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

2,0

2,6

Scored

1,1

1,7

Conceded

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

32% Possession 68%

9 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 7

3 Offside 3

19 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Chaves 7. · Sp Lisbon 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	13	3	1	+26	42
2	Porto	16	10	5	1	+21	35
3	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+14	33
4	Sp Lisbon	16	10	3	3	+13	33
5	Guimaraes	16	9	3	4	+8	30
6	Rio Ave	16	7	3	6	+0	24
7	Chaves	16	5	8	3	+2	23
8	Maritimo	16	7	2	7	-1	23
9	Arouca	17	7	2	8	-4	23
10	Vitoria Setubal	17	6	4	7	+0	22
11	Boavista	17	5	6	6	-1	21
12	Belenenses	16	4	5	7	-6	17
13	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-7	17
14	Estoril	17	4	3	10	-9	15
15	Moreirense	16	4	2	10	-11	14
16	Feirense	16	4	2	10	-19	14
17	Nacional	17	3	3	11	-12	12
18	Tondela	16	2	4	10	-14	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	8	7	1	0	+14	22
2	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+13	22
3	Porto	8	7	1	0	+12	22
4	Benfica	8	6	2	0	+15	20
5	Vitoria Setubal	9	5	1	3	+5	16
6	Maritimo	7	4	1	2	+3	13
7	Chaves	8	3	4	1	+2	13
8	Pacos Ferreira	8	3	4	1	+2	13
9	Arouca	9	4	1	4	+0	13
10	Rio Ave	9	4	1	4	-1	13
11	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	+2	12
12	Boavista	8	3	2	3	+2	11
13	Belenenses	7	2	3	2	-1	9
14	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-3	8
15	Tondela	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Nacional	9	2	2	5	-7	8
17	Estoril	8	2	1	5	-4	7
18	Feirense	8	2	1	5	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Guimaraes	8	6	0	2	+6	18
3	Porto	8	3	4	1	+9	13
4	Rio Ave	7	3	2	2	+1	11
5	Sp Lisbon	7	3	2	2	+0	11
6	Sp Braga	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Chaves	8	2	4	2	+0	10
8	Boavista	9	2	4	3	-3	10
9	Arouca	8	3	1	4	-4	10
10	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-4	10
11	Estoril	9	2	2	5	-5	8
12	Belenenses	9	2	2	5	-5	8
13	Feirense	8	2	1	5	-9	7
14	Vitoria Setubal	8	1	3	4	-5	6
15	Moreirense	8	2	0	6	-8	6
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-5	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Tondela	8	0	2	6	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.