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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota da Silva

Belenenses

S U U U S

2–1

Full-time

Chaves

T U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

1,8

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 30%

30%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 26%

22%

30%

Both score Ø 46%

43%

48%

Average goals

1,7

2,0

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%

20 Shots 16

12 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 10

3 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 11. · Chaves 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	24	19	3	2	+39	60
2	Porto	24	18	5	1	+42	59
3	Sp Lisbon	23	14	5	4	+18	47
4	Sp Braga	24	12	6	6	+15	42
5	Guimaraes	23	11	6	6	+6	39
6	Maritimo	24	10	7	7	+3	37
7	Chaves	23	7	11	5	+2	32
8	Boavista	24	7	9	8	-1	30
9	Vitoria Setubal	24	8	6	10	-1	30
10	Rio Ave	23	8	5	10	-4	29
11	Belenenses	23	7	8	8	-4	29
12	Arouca	24	8	3	13	-12	27
13	Feirense	24	7	5	12	-18	26
14	Pacos Ferreira	24	6	7	11	-11	25
15	Estoril	23	5	5	13	-12	20
16	Moreirense	24	5	5	14	-15	20
17	Tondela	24	3	7	14	-23	16
18	Nacional	24	3	7	14	-24	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	12	1	0	+29	37
2	Benfica	12	10	2	0	+27	32
3	Sp Braga	13	9	2	2	+16	29
4	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+16	28
5	Maritimo	12	7	3	2	+7	24
6	Chaves	12	5	6	1	+6	21
7	Vitoria Setubal	12	6	3	3	+6	21
8	Pacos Ferreira	12	5	5	2	+3	20
9	Rio Ave	12	5	3	4	+0	18
10	Guimaraes	11	4	4	3	+1	16
11	Arouca	12	5	1	6	-1	16
12	Belenenses	11	3	5	3	-1	14
13	Feirense	13	4	2	7	-10	14
14	Boavista	11	3	3	5	+0	12
15	Tondela	11	3	3	5	-2	12
16	Moreirense	12	2	5	5	-4	11
17	Nacional	12	2	5	5	-7	11
18	Estoril	11	3	1	7	-6	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	9	1	2	+12	28
2	Guimaraes	12	7	2	3	+5	23
3	Porto	11	6	4	1	+13	22
4	Sp Lisbon	12	5	4	3	+2	19
5	Boavista	13	4	6	3	-1	18
6	Belenenses	12	4	3	5	-3	15
7	Sp Braga	11	3	4	4	-1	13
8	Maritimo	12	3	4	5	-4	13
9	Feirense	11	3	3	5	-8	12
10	Rio Ave	11	3	2	6	-4	11
11	Chaves	11	2	5	4	-4	11
12	Arouca	12	3	2	7	-11	11
13	Estoril	12	2	4	6	-6	10
14	Vitoria Setubal	12	2	3	7	-7	9
15	Moreirense	12	3	0	9	-11	9
16	Pacos Ferreira	12	1	2	9	-14	5
17	Nacional	12	1	2	9	-17	5
18	Tondela	13	0	4	9	-21	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.