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Primeira Liga

Referee: António Nobre

Moreirense

T T T S T

1–0

Full-time

Chaves

S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

4,3

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 35/1 matches

Win Ø 60%

20%

100%

Points per game

0,8

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 22%

43%

Both score Ø 25%

49%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

0,9

2,0

Conceded

1,5

0,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%

9 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 8

2 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	34	29	4	1	+64	91
2	Sp Lisbon	34	27	4	3	+50	85
3	Benfica	34	23	5	6	+48	74
4	Sp Braga	34	19	8	7	+21	65
5	Gil Vicente	34	13	12	9	+5	51
6	Guimaraes	34	13	9	12	+9	48
7	Santa Clara	34	9	13	12	-16	40
8	Famalicao	34	9	12	13	-6	39
9	Estoril	34	9	12	13	-7	39
10	Maritimo	34	9	11	14	-5	38
11	Boavista	34	7	17	10	-13	38
12	Portimonense	34	10	8	16	-14	38
13	Pacos Ferreira	34	9	11	14	-15	38
14	Vizela	34	7	12	15	-21	33
15	Arouca	34	7	10	17	-24	31
16	Moreirense	35	7	8	20	-20	29
17	Tondela	34	7	7	20	-26	28
18	Belenenses	34	5	11	18	-32	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	15	2	0	+39	47
2	Sp Lisbon	17	14	1	2	+26	43
3	Sp Braga	17	10	4	3	+14	34
4	Benfica	17	10	3	4	+20	33
5	Guimaraes	17	9	3	5	+14	30
6	Santa Clara	17	8	6	3	+1	30
7	Gil Vicente	17	6	6	5	+6	24
8	Famalicao	17	5	7	5	+1	22
9	Boavista	17	4	10	3	+0	22
10	Pacos Ferreira	17	5	6	6	-3	21
11	Estoril	17	4	8	5	+0	20
12	Vizela	17	4	7	6	-5	19
13	Arouca	17	5	4	8	-14	19
14	Maritimo	17	4	6	7	+2	18
15	Moreirense	17	5	3	9	-1	18
16	Belenenses	17	5	3	9	-15	18
17	Portimonense	17	4	4	9	-7	16
18	Tondela	17	4	4	9	-9	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	14	2	1	+25	44
2	Sp Lisbon	17	13	3	1	+24	42
3	Benfica	17	13	2	2	+28	41
4	Sp Braga	17	9	4	4	+7	31
5	Gil Vicente	17	7	6	4	-1	27
6	Portimonense	17	6	4	7	-7	22
7	Maritimo	17	5	5	7	-7	20
8	Estoril	17	5	4	8	-7	19
9	Guimaraes	17	4	6	7	-5	18
10	Famalicao	17	4	5	8	-7	17
11	Pacos Ferreira	17	4	5	8	-12	17
12	Boavista	17	3	7	7	-13	16
13	Vizela	17	3	5	9	-16	14
14	Arouca	17	2	6	9	-10	12
15	Tondela	17	3	3	11	-17	12
16	Moreirense	18	2	5	11	-19	11
17	Santa Clara	17	1	7	9	-17	10
18	Belenenses	17	0	8	9	-17	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.