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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Portimonense

T T T S T

1–0

Full-time

Moreirense

T T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Portimonense Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

2,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-2,0

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 24%

27%

20%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

37%

43%

Both score Ø 47%

43%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

19 Shots 15

7 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 6

4 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Portimonense 12. · Moreirense 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	30	26	4	0	+60	82
2	Sp Lisbon	30	23	4	3	+39	73
3	Benfica	30	21	4	5	+46	67
4	Sp Braga	30	16	8	6	+19	56
5	Gil Vicente	30	12	11	7	+10	47
6	Guimaraes	30	12	6	12	+4	42
7	Maritimo	30	9	9	12	-3	36
8	Pacos Ferreira	30	9	9	12	-11	36
9	Estoril	30	8	11	11	-4	35
10	Santa Clara	30	8	11	11	-14	35
11	Boavista	30	6	15	9	-11	33
12	Portimonense	30	8	8	14	-14	32
13	Vizela	31	7	11	13	-16	32
14	Famalicao	30	6	11	13	-10	29
15	Arouca	31	6	9	16	-24	27
16	Moreirense	30	6	8	16	-18	26
17	Tondela	30	7	4	19	-23	25
18	Belenenses	30	5	9	16	-30	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	2	0	+35	41
2	Sp Lisbon	15	12	1	2	+19	37
3	Benfica	15	10	2	3	+21	32
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+12	28
5	Guimaraes	15	8	2	5	+9	26
6	Santa Clara	15	7	5	3	-1	26
7	Boavista	15	4	9	2	+3	21
8	Gil Vicente	15	5	5	5	+3	20
9	Pacos Ferreira	15	5	5	5	-1	20
10	Maritimo	15	4	6	5	+4	18
11	Vizela	16	4	6	6	-5	18
12	Belenenses	15	5	3	7	-13	18
13	Estoril	15	3	7	5	-1	16
14	Famalicao	15	3	7	5	-2	16
15	Moreirense	15	4	3	8	-3	15
16	Arouca	15	4	3	8	-15	15
17	Tondela	15	4	2	9	-9	14
18	Portimonense	15	3	4	8	-7	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	2	0	+25	41
2	Sp Lisbon	15	11	3	1	+20	36
3	Benfica	15	11	2	2	+25	35
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+7	28
5	Gil Vicente	15	7	6	2	+7	27
6	Estoril	15	5	4	6	-3	19
7	Portimonense	15	5	4	6	-7	19
8	Maritimo	15	5	3	7	-7	18
9	Guimaraes	15	4	4	7	-5	16
10	Pacos Ferreira	15	4	4	7	-10	16
11	Vizela	15	3	5	7	-11	14
12	Famalicao	15	3	4	8	-8	13
13	Arouca	16	2	6	8	-9	12
14	Boavista	15	2	6	7	-14	12
15	Tondela	15	3	2	10	-14	11
16	Moreirense	15	2	5	8	-15	11
17	Santa Clara	15	1	6	8	-13	9
18	Belenenses	15	0	6	9	-17	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.