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Premier League

Referee: D Coote

Brighton

U T U S U

1–2

Full-time

Southampton

S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,0

4,0

Scored

1,0

2,3

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 35%

20%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 65%

80%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

1,4

1,9

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

47% Possession 53%

12 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 16. · Southampton 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	11	7	3	1	+14	24
2	Liverpool	11	7	3	1	+9	24
3	Chelsea	11	6	4	1	+14	22
4	Leicester	11	7	0	4	+6	21
5	Man United	10	6	1	3	+2	19
6	Man City	10	5	3	2	+6	18
7	West Ham	11	5	2	4	+4	17
8	Southampton	10	5	2	3	+3	17
9	Everton	11	5	2	4	+2	17
10	Wolves	11	5	2	4	-4	17
11	Crystal Palace	11	5	1	5	+1	16
12	Aston Villa	9	5	0	4	+7	15
13	Newcastle	10	4	2	4	-3	14
14	Leeds	11	4	2	5	-4	14
15	Arsenal	11	4	1	6	-4	13
16	Brighton	10	2	4	4	-2	10
17	Fulham	11	2	1	8	-10	7
18	Burnley	10	1	3	6	-13	6
19	West Brom	11	1	3	7	-15	6
20	Sheffield United	11	0	1	10	-13	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	6	0	0	+12	18
2	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+7	11
3	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	Man City	5	3	1	1	+5	10
5	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+2	10
6	Southampton	5	3	0	2	+2	9
7	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Everton	5	2	1	2	+2	7
9	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Aston Villa	5	2	0	3	+1	6
11	Leicester	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	Arsenal	5	2	0	3	-3	6
13	Newcastle	5	2	0	3	-5	6
14	Leeds	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	West Brom	6	1	2	3	-7	5
16	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-4	4
17	Man United	5	1	1	3	-7	4
18	Brighton	5	0	3	2	-3	3
19	Fulham	5	1	0	4	-6	3
20	Sheffield United	6	0	1	5	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Leicester	6	5	0	1	+8	15
3	Tottenham	5	4	1	0	+10	13
4	Chelsea	5	3	2	0	+7	11
5	Everton	6	3	1	2	+0	10
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9
7	Crystal Palace	6	3	0	3	+0	9
8	Leeds	6	3	0	3	-1	9
9	Wolves	6	3	0	3	-5	9
10	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	+2	8
11	Southampton	5	2	2	1	+1	8
12	Man City	5	2	2	1	+1	8
13	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+2	7
14	Brighton	5	2	1	2	+1	7
15	Arsenal	6	2	1	3	-1	7
16	Liverpool	5	1	3	1	-3	6
17	Fulham	6	1	1	4	-4	4
18	Burnley	5	0	2	3	-9	2
19	West Brom	5	0	1	4	-8	1
20	Sheffield United	5	0	0	5	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.