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Premier League

Referee: J Moss

Southampton

U S S S U

2–3

Full-time

Man United

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 9/8 matches

Win Ø 53%

56%

50%

Points per game

1,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

33%

63%

Both score Ø 54%

44%

63%

Average goals

3,3

3,4

Scored

1,9

1,6

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

49% Possession 51%

10 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 9

12 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 5. · Man United 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	6	3	1	+5	21
2	Tottenham	9	6	2	1	+12	20
3	Chelsea	9	5	3	1	+12	18
4	Leicester	9	6	0	3	+6	18
5	Southampton	9	5	2	2	+4	17
6	Everton	10	5	1	4	+2	16
7	Aston Villa	8	5	0	3	+8	15
8	Man City	9	4	3	2	+4	15
9	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+5	14
10	Wolves	9	4	2	3	-1	14
11	Leeds	10	4	2	4	-2	14
12	Newcastle	10	4	2	4	-3	14
13	Man United	8	4	1	3	-1	13
14	Arsenal	9	4	1	4	-1	13
15	Crystal Palace	10	4	1	5	-3	13
16	Brighton	10	2	4	4	-2	10
17	West Brom	10	1	3	6	-11	6
18	Burnley	9	1	2	6	-13	5
19	Fulham	9	1	1	7	-9	4
20	Sheffield United	10	0	1	9	-12	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+8	15
2	Southampton	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Tottenham	5	2	2	1	+2	8
4	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+1	8
5	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+5	7
6	Man City	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	West Ham	4	2	1	1	+3	7
8	Everton	5	2	1	2	+2	7
9	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Aston Villa	5	2	0	3	+1	6
11	Leicester	4	2	0	2	-1	6
12	Arsenal	4	2	0	2	-2	6
13	Newcastle	5	2	0	3	-5	6
14	Leeds	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	West Brom	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Man United	5	1	1	3	-7	4
17	Brighton	5	0	3	2	-3	3
18	Burnley	4	1	0	3	-4	3
19	Fulham	5	1	0	4	-6	3
20	Sheffield United	5	0	1	4	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Leicester	5	4	0	1	+7	12
3	Chelsea	5	3	2	0	+7	11
4	Aston Villa	3	3	0	0	+7	9
5	Man United	3	3	0	0	+6	9
6	Leeds	5	3	0	2	+1	9
7	Everton	5	3	0	2	+0	9
8	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	+2	8
9	Southampton	5	2	2	1	+1	8
10	Man City	5	2	2	1	+1	8
11	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+2	7
12	Brighton	5	2	1	2	+1	7
13	Arsenal	5	2	1	2	+1	7
14	Wolves	4	2	0	2	-2	6
15	Liverpool	5	1	3	1	-3	6
16	Crystal Palace	5	2	0	3	-4	6
17	Burnley	5	0	2	3	-9	2
18	Fulham	4	0	1	3	-3	1
19	West Brom	5	0	1	4	-8	1
20	Sheffield United	5	0	0	5	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.