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Championship

Referee: J Brooks

Leeds

S S S T S

1–1

Full-time

Luton

S U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,0

This season — Championship · 39/39 matches

Win Ø 42%

56%

28%

Points per game

1,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

31%

69%

Both score Ø 49%

36%

62%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

75% Possession 25%

23 Shots 3

9 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

15 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 1. · Luton 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	39	22	8	9	+27	74
2	West Brom	39	19	14	6	+26	71
3	Fulham	38	19	9	10	+11	66
4	Nott'm Forest	39	17	13	9	+12	64
5	Brentford	37	17	9	11	+31	60
6	Cardiff	39	15	15	9	+6	60
7	Swansea	38	14	15	9	+8	57
8	Preston	39	16	9	14	+3	57
9	Derby	39	15	12	12	+2	57
10	Blackburn	40	15	11	14	+5	56
11	Millwall	40	13	17	10	+3	56
12	Bristol City	39	15	10	14	-5	55
13	Sheffield Weds	39	14	10	15	-2	52
14	QPR	40	14	8	18	-7	50
15	Reading	40	13	10	17	+0	49
16	Birmingham	39	12	13	14	-9	49
17	Wigan	39	12	11	16	-8	47
18	Charlton	40	12	10	18	-8	46
19	Middlesbrough	39	10	14	15	-11	44
20	Stoke	39	12	7	20	-8	43
21	Hull	39	11	9	19	-15	42
22	Huddersfield	39	11	9	19	-17	42
23	Barnsley	40	10	11	19	-17	41
24	Luton	39	11	6	22	-27	39

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Derby	20	11	7	2	+16	40
2	Leeds	19	12	4	3	+16	40
3	Fulham	20	12	2	6	+9	38
4	Preston	20	11	3	6	+9	36
5	Cardiff	19	9	8	2	+11	35
6	Blackburn	20	9	8	3	+10	35
7	Brentford	17	9	5	3	+19	32
8	West Brom	19	8	8	3	+13	32
9	Millwall	20	8	8	4	+6	32
10	Nott'm Forest	19	9	4	6	+3	31
11	Swansea	19	8	5	6	+6	29
12	Charlton	20	8	5	7	+3	29
13	QPR	21	8	5	8	+2	29
14	Stoke	20	8	3	9	+3	27
15	Wigan	19	7	6	6	-2	27
16	Sheffield Weds	19	7	6	6	-5	27
17	Luton	19	7	5	7	+0	26
18	Bristol City	19	7	5	7	-3	26
19	Huddersfield	20	7	5	8	-3	26
20	Middlesbrough	20	6	8	6	-4	26
21	Barnsley	21	6	8	7	-5	26
22	Birmingham	19	6	6	7	-2	24
23	Reading	20	7	3	10	-4	24
24	Hull	20	6	3	11	-7	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	20	11	6	3	+13	39
2	Leeds	20	10	4	6	+11	34
3	Nott'm Forest	20	8	9	3	+9	33
4	Bristol City	20	8	5	7	-2	29
5	Brentford	20	8	4	8	+12	28
6	Swansea	19	6	10	3	+2	28
7	Fulham	18	7	7	4	+2	28
8	Reading	20	6	7	7	+4	25
9	Sheffield Weds	20	7	4	9	+3	25
10	Cardiff	20	6	7	7	-5	25
11	Birmingham	20	6	7	7	-7	25
12	Millwall	20	5	9	6	-3	24
13	Blackburn	20	6	3	11	-5	21
14	Preston	19	5	6	8	-6	21
15	Hull	19	5	6	8	-8	21
16	QPR	19	6	3	10	-9	21
17	Wigan	20	5	5	10	-6	20
18	Middlesbrough	19	4	6	9	-7	18
19	Charlton	20	4	5	11	-11	17
20	Derby	19	4	5	10	-14	17
21	Stoke	19	4	4	11	-11	16
22	Huddersfield	19	4	4	11	-14	16
23	Barnsley	19	4	3	12	-12	15
24	Luton	20	4	1	15	-27	13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.