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Championship

Referee: S Martin

Brentford

U S U S S

1–0

Full-time

Luton

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,2

1,7

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

This season — Championship · 20/24 matches

Win Ø 44%

50%

38%

Points per game

1,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

50%

29%

Both score Ø 44%

55%

33%

Average goals

2,6

2,0

Scored

1,7

0,9

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

15 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Brentford 6. · Luton 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	25	16	5	4	+14	53
2	Watford	24	12	7	5	+11	43
3	Reading	24	13	4	7	+9	43
4	Bournemouth	24	11	9	4	+18	42
5	Swansea	21	11	6	4	+12	39
6	Brentford	20	10	7	3	+14	37
7	Stoke	25	9	10	6	+4	37
8	Middlesbrough	23	10	6	7	+9	36
9	Bristol City	24	11	3	10	-1	36
10	Barnsley	23	10	4	9	-1	34
11	Blackburn	24	9	6	9	+11	33
12	Luton	24	9	6	9	-5	33
13	Preston	24	10	2	12	-3	32
14	Huddersfield	24	9	4	11	-6	31
15	Cardiff	23	8	5	10	+3	29
16	Millwall	23	5	11	7	-4	26
17	Birmingham	24	6	8	10	-11	26
18	Coventry	24	6	8	10	-12	26
19	Nott'm Forest	24	6	7	11	-8	25
20	Sheffield Weds	23	6	7	10	-8	25
21	QPR	23	5	9	9	-8	24
22	Derby	24	5	7	12	-10	22
23	Rotherham	22	5	5	12	-9	20
24	Wycombe	23	3	6	14	-19	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	13	10	2	1	+14	32
2	Norwich	13	8	4	1	+9	28
3	Bournemouth	12	7	3	2	+11	24
4	Reading	12	8	0	4	+7	24
5	Middlesbrough	11	7	2	2	+10	23
6	Swansea	11	6	4	1	+8	22
7	Huddersfield	12	7	1	4	+6	22
8	Barnsley	11	6	2	3	+3	20
9	Bristol City	12	6	2	4	+2	20
10	Blackburn	12	5	4	3	+6	19
11	Luton	12	5	4	3	+2	19
12	Stoke	12	5	3	4	+0	18
13	Sheffield Weds	12	4	5	3	+1	17
14	Coventry	11	4	5	2	-1	17
15	Brentford	9	4	4	1	+6	16
16	Nott'm Forest	12	4	4	4	+1	16
17	Cardiff	12	4	2	6	+3	14
18	QPR	11	3	4	4	-2	13
19	Preston	12	4	1	7	-3	13
20	Rotherham	11	3	3	5	+0	12
21	Millwall	11	1	7	3	-3	10
22	Wycombe	12	2	4	6	-6	10
23	Derby	13	2	4	7	-9	10
24	Birmingham	12	2	2	8	-13	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	12	8	1	3	+5	25
2	Brentford	11	6	3	2	+8	21
3	Stoke	13	4	7	2	+4	19
4	Reading	12	5	4	3	+2	19
5	Preston	12	6	1	5	+0	19
6	Bournemouth	12	4	6	2	+7	18
7	Birmingham	12	4	6	2	+2	18
8	Swansea	10	5	2	3	+4	17
9	Millwall	12	4	4	4	-1	16
10	Bristol City	12	5	1	6	-3	16
11	Cardiff	11	4	3	4	+0	15
12	Blackburn	12	4	2	6	+5	14
13	Barnsley	12	4	2	6	-4	14
14	Luton	12	4	2	6	-7	14
15	Middlesbrough	12	3	4	5	-1	13
16	Derby	11	3	3	5	-1	12
17	Watford	11	2	5	4	-3	11
18	QPR	12	2	5	5	-6	11
19	Nott'm Forest	12	2	3	7	-9	9
20	Coventry	13	2	3	8	-11	9
21	Huddersfield	12	2	3	7	-12	9
22	Rotherham	11	2	2	7	-9	8
23	Sheffield Weds	11	2	2	7	-9	8
24	Wycombe	11	1	2	8	-13	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.