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Premier League

Referee: J Moss

Man City

S S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

U S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

0,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,0

This season — Premier League · 17/15 matches

Win Ø 56%

59%

53%

Points per game

2,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

29%

67%

Both score Ø 41%

41%

40%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,9

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

69% Possession 31%

28 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 4

12 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 7

16 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Aston Villa 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	19	12	2	5	+14	38
2	Man United	18	11	4	3	+10	37
3	Man City	17	10	5	2	+16	35
4	Liverpool	18	9	7	2	+16	34
5	Tottenham	18	9	6	3	+16	33
6	Everton	17	10	2	5	+7	32
7	West Ham	19	9	5	5	+5	32
8	Chelsea	19	8	5	6	+10	29
9	Southampton	18	8	5	5	+5	29
10	Arsenal	19	8	3	8	+4	27
11	Aston Villa	15	8	2	5	+13	26
12	Leeds	18	7	2	9	-4	23
13	Crystal Palace	19	6	5	8	-11	23
14	Wolves	19	6	4	9	-8	22
15	Newcastle	18	5	4	9	-12	19
16	Brighton	19	3	8	8	-7	17
17	Burnley	17	4	4	9	-13	16
18	Fulham	17	2	6	9	-11	12
19	West Brom	19	2	5	12	-28	11
20	Sheffield United	19	1	2	16	-22	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	7	2	0	+13	23
2	Man City	9	6	2	1	+12	20
3	West Ham	10	5	3	2	+4	18
4	Southampton	9	5	1	3	+5	16
5	Leicester	10	5	1	4	+3	16
6	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+8	15
7	Tottenham	9	4	3	2	+5	15
8	Arsenal	10	4	2	4	+1	14
9	Man United	9	4	2	3	-1	14
10	Everton	8	4	1	3	+3	13
11	Wolves	10	3	3	4	-1	12
12	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-4	12
13	Leeds	9	3	2	4	-1	11
14	Newcastle	9	3	2	4	-5	11
15	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	+4	10
16	Burnley	8	3	1	4	-3	10
17	Fulham	9	1	3	5	-7	6
18	Brighton	9	0	5	4	-5	5
19	West Brom	9	1	2	6	-19	5
20	Sheffield United	10	1	1	8	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	9	7	2	0	+11	23
2	Leicester	9	7	1	1	+11	22
3	Everton	9	6	1	2	+4	19
4	Tottenham	9	5	3	1	+11	18
5	Aston Villa	8	5	1	2	+9	16
6	Man City	8	4	3	1	+4	15
7	Chelsea	10	4	2	4	+2	14
8	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+1	14
9	Arsenal	9	4	1	4	+3	13
10	Southampton	9	3	4	2	+0	13
11	Brighton	10	3	3	4	-2	12
12	Leeds	9	4	0	5	-3	12
13	Liverpool	9	2	5	2	+3	11
14	Crystal Palace	10	3	2	5	-7	11
15	Wolves	9	3	1	5	-7	10
16	Newcastle	9	2	2	5	-7	8
17	Fulham	8	1	3	4	-4	6
18	West Brom	10	1	3	6	-9	6
19	Burnley	9	1	3	5	-10	6
20	Sheffield United	9	0	1	8	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.