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Championship

Referee: G Ward

Luton

S S T T S

1–0

Full-time

Watford

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,5

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,7

This season — Championship · 40/41 matches

Win Ø 49%

38%

59%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 31%

30%

32%

Both score Ø 36%

33%

39%

Average goals

2,0

2,1

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%

16 Shots 5

2 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Luton 13. · Watford 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	41	27	9	5	+37	90
2	Watford	41	24	10	7	+32	82
3	Bournemouth	40	20	11	9	+27	71
4	Barnsley	39	21	8	10	+14	71
5	Brentford	38	19	12	7	+30	69
6	Swansea	38	20	8	10	+15	68
7	Reading	42	19	10	13	+11	67
8	Cardiff	42	16	12	14	+12	60
9	Millwall	41	14	16	11	+1	58
10	Middlesbrough	41	16	9	16	+3	57
11	QPR	41	15	11	15	-2	56
12	Stoke	41	14	13	14	-1	55
13	Luton	40	15	8	17	-11	53
14	Blackburn	42	13	11	18	+6	50
15	Bristol City	41	15	5	21	-15	50
16	Nott'm Forest	41	12	13	16	-5	49
17	Preston	41	14	6	21	-14	48
18	Coventry	41	11	12	18	-19	45
19	Birmingham	41	11	12	18	-19	45
20	Huddersfield	41	11	11	19	-19	44
21	Derby	42	11	10	21	-17	43
22	Sheffield Weds	41	11	8	22	-20	41
23	Rotherham	39	11	6	22	-12	39
24	Wycombe	41	8	9	24	-34	33

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	21	17	2	2	+29	53
2	Norwich	20	13	6	1	+24	45
3	Bournemouth	21	13	3	5	+19	42
4	Reading	21	12	2	7	+10	38
5	Barnsley	20	11	5	4	+9	38
6	Swansea	19	10	5	4	+9	35
7	Middlesbrough	20	10	4	6	+7	34
8	QPR	21	10	4	7	+5	34
9	Brentford	17	9	6	2	+15	33
10	Stoke	20	9	4	7	+4	31
11	Coventry	20	8	7	5	+2	31
12	Huddersfield	21	8	6	7	+6	30
13	Blackburn	21	7	7	7	+3	28
14	Millwall	21	6	10	5	+0	28
15	Sheffield Weds	20	7	6	7	+4	27
16	Luton	19	7	6	6	+1	27
17	Cardiff	21	7	5	9	+10	26
18	Nott'm Forest	20	6	7	7	+0	25
19	Derby	21	6	6	9	-5	24
20	Bristol City	21	7	3	11	-9	24
21	Birmingham	21	6	3	12	-15	21
22	Preston	21	5	5	11	-8	20
23	Wycombe	21	5	5	11	-13	20
24	Rotherham	20	5	3	12	-7	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	21	14	3	4	+13	45
2	Brentford	21	10	6	5	+15	36
3	Cardiff	21	9	7	5	+2	34
4	Swansea	19	10	3	6	+6	33
5	Barnsley	19	10	3	6	+5	33
6	Millwall	20	8	6	6	+1	30
7	Bournemouth	19	7	8	4	+8	29
8	Watford	20	7	8	5	+3	29
9	Reading	21	7	8	6	+1	29
10	Preston	20	9	1	10	-6	28
11	Bristol City	20	8	2	10	-6	26
12	Luton	21	8	2	11	-12	26
13	Birmingham	20	5	9	6	-4	24
14	Stoke	21	5	9	7	-5	24
15	Nott'm Forest	21	6	6	9	-5	24
16	Middlesbrough	21	6	5	10	-4	23
17	Blackburn	21	6	4	11	+3	22
18	QPR	20	5	7	8	-7	22
19	Rotherham	19	6	3	10	-5	21
20	Derby	21	5	4	12	-12	19
21	Coventry	21	3	5	13	-21	14
22	Sheffield Weds	21	4	2	15	-24	14
23	Huddersfield	20	3	5	12	-25	14
24	Wycombe	20	3	4	13	-21	13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.