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2. Bundesliga

Erzgebirge Aue

U T T S U

3–8

Full-time

Paderborn

T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Erzgebirge Aue Paderborn

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 35%

35%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

48%

52%

Both score Ø 49%

45%

52%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–4

13 Shots 22

5 Shots on target 10

1 Corners 6

6 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Erzgebirge Aue 11. · Paderborn 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bochum	31	19	3	9	+21	60
2	Greuther Furth	32	16	10	6	+22	58
3	Holstein Kiel	30	16	8	6	+22	56
4	Fortuna Dusseldorf	32	15	8	9	+7	53
5	Hamburg	31	14	10	7	+21	52
6	Heidenheim	31	14	6	11	+4	48
7	St Pauli	32	13	8	11	-1	47
8	Karlsruhe	32	12	10	10	+5	46
9	Darmstadt	32	13	6	13	+3	45
10	Paderborn	31	11	10	10	+5	43
11	Erzgebirge Aue	31	11	8	12	-2	41
12	Nurnberg	31	10	10	11	-3	40
13	Hannover	31	11	6	14	+3	39
14	Regensburg	30	8	11	11	-9	35
15	Sandhausen	31	9	4	18	-18	31
16	Braunschweig	32	7	10	15	-24	31
17	Osnabruck	32	8	6	18	-23	30
18	Wurzburger Kickers	32	5	6	21	-33	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	10	4	2	+9	34
2	Bochum	15	10	2	3	+18	32
3	Heidenheim	15	9	3	3	+12	30
4	Holstein Kiel	14	9	2	3	+11	29
5	Paderborn	16	8	5	3	+8	29
6	Hamburg	15	8	4	3	+17	28
7	Greuther Furth	16	8	4	4	+10	28
8	Sandhausen	16	8	4	4	+6	28
9	St Pauli	16	8	3	5	+4	27
10	Hannover	16	7	4	5	+9	25
11	Erzgebirge Aue	15	7	4	4	+5	25
12	Braunschweig	16	6	4	6	-5	22
13	Darmstadt	16	6	3	7	+2	21
14	Nurnberg	16	5	6	5	-1	21
15	Regensburg	16	5	6	5	-1	21
16	Karlsruhe	16	4	6	6	+0	18
17	Wurzburger Kickers	16	3	5	8	-11	14
18	Osnabruck	16	2	1	13	-19	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Greuther Furth	16	8	6	2	+12	30
2	Karlsruhe	16	8	4	4	+5	28
3	Bochum	16	9	1	6	+3	28
4	Holstein Kiel	16	7	6	3	+11	27
5	Hamburg	16	6	6	4	+4	24
6	Darmstadt	16	7	3	6	+1	24
7	Osnabruck	16	6	5	5	-4	23
8	St Pauli	16	5	5	6	-5	20
9	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	5	4	7	-2	19
10	Nurnberg	15	5	4	6	-2	19
11	Heidenheim	16	5	3	8	-8	18
12	Erzgebirge Aue	16	4	4	8	-7	16
13	Paderborn	15	3	5	7	-3	14
14	Hannover	15	4	2	9	-6	14
15	Regensburg	14	3	5	6	-8	14
16	Braunschweig	16	1	6	9	-19	9
17	Wurzburger Kickers	16	2	1	13	-22	7
18	Sandhausen	15	1	0	14	-24	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.