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Bundesliga
Referee: G Grobelnik
Sturm Graz
S U T S U
1–3
Full-time
Salzburg
S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz Salzburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,3
3,2
Scored
1,2
2,2
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,2
This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches
Win Ø 61%
46%
75%
Points per game
1,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 65%
54%
75%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
68%
Average goals
2,4
3,9
Scored
1,5
2,9
Conceded
1,0
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,8
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

44% Possession 56%
8 Shots 18
4 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 7
2 Offside 3
15 Free kicks against 14
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sturm Graz 4. · Salzburg 1. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Salzburg 28 21 2 5 +50 65
2 SK Rapid 28 16 8 4 +27 56
3 LASK 28 14 5 9 +16 47
4 Sturm Graz 28 13 8 7 +14 47
5 Hartberg 29 10 11 8 -11 41
6 Wolfsberger AC 28 12 4 12 -5 40
7 Austria Vienna 29 9 9 11 +2 36
8 Tirol 28 10 6 12 -2 36
9 Ried 29 7 8 14 -21 29
10 Altach 29 8 5 16 -25 29
11 Admira 29 6 6 17 -29 24
12 St. Polten 29 5 8 16 -16 23

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

4. Apr -21 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 3–1 28. Feb -21 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 2–1 21. Nov -20 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 1–3 1. Jul -20 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 5–2 10. Jun -20 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 1–5

Match report

Sturm Graz Salzburg
20′
⚽ B. Aaronson 0–1
M. Berisha
Half-time 0–1
Jon Gorenc Stanković 🟨
46′
S. Hierländer 🔁
↦ A. Kuen
46′
1–1 O. Kiteishvili ⚽
J. Gazibegović
56′
65′
🔁 N. Seiwald
↦ A. Bernède
65′
🔁 K. Adeyemi
↦ P. Daka
L. Jäger 🔁
↦ O. Kiteishvili
74′
G. Wüthrich 🔁
↦ N. Geyrhofer
74′
78′
⚽ B. Aaronson 1–2
André Ramalho
79′
🔁 N. Okafor
↦ M. Berisha
83′
⚽ Z. Junuzović 1–3
84′
🔁 L. Sučić
↦ B. Aaronson
84′
🔁 Bernardo
↦ Z. Junuzović
P. Huspek 🔁
↦ J. Jantscher
85′
B. Balaj 🔁
↦ K. Yeboah
85′
90′
🟨 Karim Adeyemi
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

4-3-1-2
27 J. Siebenhandl G
4 J. Stankovič M
11 J. Gazibegović D
6 D. Nemeth D
35 N. Geyrhofer D
44 A. Dante D
13 J. Jantscher F
19 A. Kuen M
30 I. Ljubic M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
23 K. Yeboah F
Bench (7)
25 S. Hierländer
17 L. Jäger
5 G. Wüthrich
18 P. Huspek
9 B. Balaj
32 T. Schützenauer
20 K. Friesenbichler

Coach: C. Ilzer

Salzburg

4-2-2-2
1 C. Stanković G
17 A. Ulmer D
15 André Ramalho D
39 M. Wöber D
43 R. Kristensen D
16 Z. Junuzović M
28 A. Bernède M
45 E. Mwepu M
11 B. Aaronson M
8 M. Berisha F
20 P. Daka F
Bench (7)
13 N. Seiwald
27 K. Adeyemi
77 N. Okafor
21 L. Sučić
95 Bernardo
23 N. Mantl
22 O. Solet

Coach: J. Marsch

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B ✓
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

G Grobelnik · 26 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.