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2. Bundesliga

Fortuna Dusseldorf

T T T T S

3–1

Full-time

Erzgebirge Aue

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fortuna Dusseldorf Erzgebirge Aue

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

3,5

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

1,3

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,8

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 21%

27%

14%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

45%

55%

Both score Ø 57%

59%

55%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,4

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,0

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

18 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 2

6 Corners 0

11 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fortuna Dusseldorf 16. · Erzgebirge Aue 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Werder Bremen	23	12	6	5	+13	42
2	Hamburg	23	10	11	2	+21	41
3	St Pauli	22	12	5	5	+14	41
4	Darmstadt	22	12	4	6	+18	40
5	Schalke 04	23	12	4	7	+18	40
6	Heidenheim	23	11	5	7	+0	38
7	Nurnberg	23	10	6	7	+0	36
8	Paderborn	23	8	8	7	+8	32
9	Karlsruhe	23	8	8	7	+5	32
10	Regensburg	23	9	4	10	+5	31
11	Holstein Kiel	23	8	7	8	-6	31
12	Dresden	23	7	5	11	-8	26
13	Hannover	22	6	7	9	-14	25
14	Sandhausen	23	6	7	10	-15	25
15	Hansa Rostock	22	6	6	10	-9	24
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	22	6	5	11	-6	23
17	Ingolstadt	23	3	6	14	-21	15
18	Erzgebirge Aue	22	3	6	13	-23	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	St Pauli	10	8	2	0	+19	26
2	Hamburg	12	6	6	0	+13	24
3	Heidenheim	11	7	3	1	+8	24
4	Schalke 04	12	7	2	3	+12	23
5	Nurnberg	12	6	2	4	+3	20
6	Darmstadt	10	6	1	3	+10	19
7	Werder Bremen	11	5	4	2	+9	19
8	Karlsruhe	12	5	4	3	+6	19
9	Regensburg	12	5	2	5	+5	17
10	Dresden	11	5	2	4	+3	17
11	Holstein Kiel	12	5	2	5	-4	17
12	Hannover	11	3	4	4	-5	13
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	2	4	5	-2	10
14	Paderborn	12	2	4	6	-3	10
15	Hansa Rostock	11	2	3	6	-7	9
16	Erzgebirge Aue	12	2	2	8	-13	8
17	Ingolstadt	11	1	4	6	-8	7
18	Sandhausen	11	1	4	6	-13	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Werder Bremen	12	7	2	3	+4	23
2	Paderborn	11	6	4	1	+11	22
3	Darmstadt	12	6	3	3	+8	21
4	Sandhausen	12	5	3	4	-2	18
5	Hamburg	11	4	5	2	+8	17
6	Schalke 04	11	5	2	4	+6	17
7	Nurnberg	11	4	4	3	-3	16
8	Hansa Rostock	11	4	3	4	-2	15
9	St Pauli	12	4	3	5	-5	15
10	Regensburg	11	4	2	5	+0	14
11	Holstein Kiel	11	3	5	3	-2	14
12	Heidenheim	12	4	2	6	-8	14
13	Karlsruhe	11	3	4	4	-1	13
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	4	1	6	-4	13
15	Hannover	11	3	3	5	-9	12
16	Dresden	12	2	3	7	-11	9
17	Ingolstadt	12	2	2	8	-13	8
18	Erzgebirge Aue	10	1	4	5	-10	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.