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Premier League

Referee: K Friend

Newcastle

S S U T S

3–4

Full-time

Man City

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

This season — Premier League · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 50%

29%

71%

Points per game

1,1

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

49%

46%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,1

2,1

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

17% Possession 83%

11 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

11 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 16. · Man City 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	35	25	5	5	+46	80
2	Man United	36	20	10	6	+28	70
3	Leicester	36	20	6	10	+21	66
4	Chelsea	36	18	10	8	+22	64
5	Liverpool	35	17	9	9	+20	60
6	West Ham	35	17	7	11	+10	58
7	Tottenham	35	16	8	11	+20	56
8	Everton	35	16	8	11	+4	56
9	Arsenal	36	16	7	13	+12	55
10	Leeds	35	15	5	15	+0	50
11	Aston Villa	35	14	7	14	+8	49
12	Wolves	35	12	9	14	-12	45
13	Crystal Palace	35	11	8	16	-22	41
14	Southampton	35	11	7	17	-18	40
15	Burnley	35	10	9	16	-14	39
16	Newcastle	35	10	9	16	-18	39
17	Brighton	35	8	13	14	-5	37
18	Fulham	35	5	12	18	-22	27
19	West Brom	35	5	11	19	-36	26
20	Sheffield United	35	5	2	28	-44	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	12	2	4	+21	38
2	West Ham	18	9	4	5	+7	31
3	Tottenham	17	9	3	5	+14	30
4	Chelsea	18	8	6	4	+12	30
5	Man United	18	9	3	6	+10	30
6	Liverpool	18	9	3	6	+7	30
7	Leicester	18	9	1	8	+6	28
8	Leeds	18	7	5	6	+5	26
9	Arsenal	18	7	4	7	+1	25
10	Wolves	18	7	4	7	-3	25
11	Southampton	17	7	3	7	+3	24
12	Aston Villa	18	6	4	8	+1	22
13	Newcastle	17	5	5	7	-7	20
14	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-11	20
15	Everton	17	5	4	8	-4	19
16	Burnley	17	4	6	7	-6	18
17	Brighton	17	3	8	6	-1	17
18	West Brom	17	3	6	8	-21	15
19	Sheffield United	18	4	1	13	-16	13
20	Fulham	18	2	4	12	-17	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	13	3	1	+25	42
2	Man United	18	11	7	0	+18	40
3	Leicester	18	11	5	2	+15	38
4	Everton	18	11	4	3	+8	37
5	Chelsea	18	10	4	4	+10	34
6	Liverpool	17	8	6	3	+13	30
7	Arsenal	18	9	3	6	+11	30
8	Aston Villa	17	8	3	6	+7	27
9	West Ham	17	8	3	6	+3	27
10	Tottenham	18	7	5	6	+6	26
11	Leeds	17	8	0	9	-5	24
12	Burnley	18	6	3	9	-8	21
13	Crystal Palace	18	6	3	9	-11	21
14	Brighton	18	5	5	8	-4	20
15	Wolves	17	5	5	7	-9	20
16	Newcastle	18	5	4	9	-11	19
17	Fulham	17	3	8	6	-5	17
18	Southampton	18	4	4	10	-21	16
19	West Brom	18	2	5	11	-15	11
20	Sheffield United	17	1	1	15	-28	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.