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Premier League

Referee: A Marriner

Man City

S T S S S

1–2

Full-time

Leeds

T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,0

Scored

2,7

1,2

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 31/30 matches

Win Ø 59%

74%

43%

Points per game

2,4

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

42%

60%

Both score Ø 45%

39%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

2,1

1,6

Conceded

0,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

71% Possession 29%

29 Shots 2

7 Shots on target 2

11 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Man City 1. · Leeds 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	31	23	5	3	+45	74
2	Man United	30	17	9	4	+25	60
3	Leicester	30	17	5	8	+19	56
4	West Ham	30	15	7	8	+11	52
5	Chelsea	30	14	9	7	+16	51
6	Tottenham	30	14	7	9	+19	49
7	Liverpool	30	14	7	9	+15	49
8	Everton	29	14	5	10	+3	47
9	Aston Villa	29	13	5	11	+11	44
10	Arsenal	30	12	6	12	+5	42
11	Leeds	30	13	3	14	-1	42
12	Wolves	31	10	8	13	-10	38
13	Crystal Palace	30	10	8	12	-16	38
14	Southampton	30	10	6	14	-14	36
15	Burnley	30	8	9	13	-16	33
16	Brighton	30	7	11	12	-5	32
17	Newcastle	30	7	8	15	-20	29
18	Fulham	32	5	11	16	-18	26
19	West Brom	30	4	9	17	-34	21
20	Sheffield United	30	4	2	24	-35	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	2	2	+23	38
2	West Ham	15	8	4	3	+8	28
3	Man United	15	8	3	4	+11	27
4	Chelsea	15	7	5	3	+11	26
5	Tottenham	14	7	3	4	+11	24
6	Liverpool	15	7	2	6	+4	23
7	Leicester	15	7	1	7	+4	22
8	Leeds	15	6	3	6	+3	21
9	Arsenal	15	6	3	6	+0	21
10	Aston Villa	14	6	2	6	+4	20
11	Southampton	15	6	2	7	+1	20
12	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-6	20
13	Wolves	15	5	4	6	-1	19
14	Everton	15	5	3	7	-3	18
15	Burnley	15	4	6	5	-4	18
16	Newcastle	15	4	5	6	-6	17
17	Brighton	15	2	7	6	-3	13
18	West Brom	15	2	5	8	-24	11
19	Sheffield United	15	3	1	11	-12	10
20	Fulham	17	2	4	11	-15	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	11	3	1	+22	36
2	Leicester	15	10	4	1	+15	34
3	Man United	15	9	6	0	+14	33
4	Everton	14	9	2	3	+6	29
5	Liverpool	15	7	5	3	+11	26
6	Tottenham	16	7	4	5	+8	25
7	Chelsea	15	7	4	4	+5	25
8	Aston Villa	15	7	3	5	+7	24
9	West Ham	15	7	3	5	+3	24
10	Arsenal	15	6	3	6	+5	21
11	Leeds	15	7	0	8	-4	21
12	Brighton	15	5	4	6	-2	19
13	Wolves	16	5	4	7	-9	19
14	Crystal Palace	15	5	3	7	-10	18
15	Fulham	15	3	7	5	-3	16
16	Southampton	15	4	4	7	-15	16
17	Burnley	15	4	3	8	-12	15
18	Newcastle	15	3	3	9	-14	12
19	West Brom	15	2	4	9	-10	10
20	Sheffield United	15	1	1	13	-23	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.