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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Aston Villa

U U T S T

1–2

Full-time

Man City

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,7

Scored

0,8

2,5

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,3

This season — Premier League · 30/32 matches

Win Ø 58%

43%

72%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

44%

Both score Ø 41%

40%

41%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,4

2,1

Conceded

1,1

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

28% Possession 72%

8 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 11

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Aston Villa 11. · Man City 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	32	23	5	4	+44	74
2	Man United	32	19	9	4	+29	66
3	Leicester	31	17	5	9	+18	56
4	Chelsea	32	15	10	7	+19	55
5	West Ham	32	16	7	9	+11	55
6	Tottenham	33	15	8	10	+18	53
7	Liverpool	32	15	8	9	+16	53
8	Everton	31	14	7	10	+3	49
9	Arsenal	32	13	7	12	+8	46
10	Leeds	32	14	4	14	+0	46
11	Aston Villa	30	13	5	12	+10	44
12	Wolves	32	11	8	13	-9	41
13	Crystal Palace	31	10	8	13	-19	38
14	Southampton	32	10	6	16	-18	36
15	Newcastle	32	9	8	15	-18	35
16	Brighton	32	7	13	12	-5	34
17	Burnley	32	8	9	15	-19	33
18	Fulham	33	5	12	16	-18	27
19	West Brom	31	5	9	17	-31	24
20	Sheffield United	32	4	2	26	-39	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	12	2	3	+22	38
2	West Ham	16	9	4	3	+9	31
3	Man United	16	9	3	4	+13	30
4	Chelsea	16	7	6	3	+11	27
5	Tottenham	16	8	3	5	+10	27
6	Liverpool	16	8	2	6	+5	26
7	Leicester	15	7	1	7	+4	22
8	Leeds	16	6	4	6	+3	22
9	Arsenal	16	6	4	6	+0	22
10	Wolves	16	6	4	6	+0	22
11	Aston Villa	14	6	2	6	+4	20
12	Southampton	15	6	2	7	+1	20
13	Newcastle	16	5	5	6	-5	20
14	Crystal Palace	16	5	5	6	-9	20
15	Everton	16	5	4	7	-3	19
16	Burnley	16	4	6	6	-5	18
17	Brighton	16	2	8	6	-3	14
18	West Brom	16	3	5	8	-21	14
19	Sheffield United	16	3	1	12	-15	10
20	Fulham	17	2	4	11	-15	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	11	3	1	+22	36
2	Man United	16	10	6	0	+16	36
3	Leicester	16	10	4	2	+14	34
4	Everton	15	9	3	3	+6	30
5	Chelsea	16	8	4	4	+8	28
6	Liverpool	16	7	6	3	+11	27
7	Tottenham	17	7	5	5	+8	26
8	Arsenal	16	7	3	6	+8	24
9	Aston Villa	16	7	3	6	+6	24
10	West Ham	16	7	3	6	+2	24
11	Leeds	16	8	0	8	-3	24
12	Brighton	16	5	5	6	-2	20
13	Wolves	16	5	4	7	-9	19
14	Crystal Palace	15	5	3	7	-10	18
15	Fulham	16	3	8	5	-3	17
16	Southampton	17	4	4	9	-19	16
17	Newcastle	16	4	3	9	-13	15
18	Burnley	16	4	3	9	-14	15
19	West Brom	15	2	4	9	-10	10
20	Sheffield United	16	1	1	14	-24	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.