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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

Bournemouth

U T T T T

3–2

Full-time

Birmingham

T S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,0

1,7

Scored

0,7

0,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

This season — Championship · 26/27 matches

Win Ø 32%

42%

22%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

38%

33%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

44%

Average goals

2,4

1,9

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

57% Possession 43%

8 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bournemouth 6. · Birmingham 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	28	16	7	5	+12	55
2	Watford	28	13	9	6	+11	48
3	Brentford	24	13	8	3	+21	47
4	Reading	26	14	5	7	+11	47
5	Swansea	24	13	7	4	+16	46
6	Bournemouth	26	11	9	6	+15	42
7	Middlesbrough	27	11	7	9	+6	40
8	Blackburn	26	11	6	9	+13	39
9	Bristol City	27	12	3	12	-2	39
10	Stoke	27	9	11	7	+3	38
11	Barnsley	25	10	6	9	-1	36
12	Preston	27	11	3	13	-3	36
13	Luton	26	9	6	11	-7	33
14	Millwall	27	6	14	7	-3	32
15	Huddersfield	27	9	5	13	-8	32
16	Cardiff	26	8	7	11	+2	31
17	Sheffield Weds	26	8	7	11	-8	31
18	Coventry	28	7	10	11	-11	31
19	QPR	26	7	9	10	-7	30
20	Nott'm Forest	27	7	8	12	-8	29
21	Derby	27	7	7	13	-11	28
22	Birmingham	27	6	10	11	-12	28
23	Rotherham	25	7	5	13	-5	26
24	Wycombe	25	3	7	15	-24	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	14	10	2	2	+13	32
2	Norwich	14	8	5	1	+9	29
3	Reading	13	9	0	4	+9	27
4	Swansea	13	7	5	1	+10	26
5	Brentford	12	7	4	1	+13	25
6	Bournemouth	13	7	3	3	+10	24
7	Middlesbrough	13	7	2	4	+6	23
8	Huddersfield	14	7	2	5	+5	23
9	Bristol City	13	7	2	4	+3	23
10	Blackburn	13	6	4	3	+7	22
11	Barnsley	12	6	3	3	+3	21
12	Coventry	14	5	6	3	+0	21
13	Sheffield Weds	13	5	5	3	+2	20
14	Luton	12	5	4	3	+2	19
15	Stoke	13	5	3	5	-1	18
16	Nott'm Forest	14	4	5	5	+0	17
17	Cardiff	14	4	3	7	+2	15
18	Rotherham	13	4	3	6	+1	15
19	Preston	13	4	2	7	-3	14
20	QPR	12	3	4	5	-3	13
21	Derby	14	3	4	7	-8	13
22	Millwall	13	1	9	3	-3	12
23	Wycombe	13	2	5	6	-6	11
24	Birmingham	14	2	3	9	-14	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	14	8	2	4	+3	26
2	Brentford	12	6	4	2	+8	22
3	Preston	14	7	1	6	+0	22
4	Swansea	11	6	2	3	+6	20
5	Stoke	14	4	8	2	+4	20
6	Reading	13	5	5	3	+2	20
7	Millwall	14	5	5	4	+0	20
8	Birmingham	13	4	7	2	+2	19
9	Bournemouth	13	4	6	3	+5	18
10	Blackburn	13	5	2	6	+6	17
11	Middlesbrough	14	4	5	5	+0	17
12	QPR	14	4	5	5	-4	17
13	Cardiff	12	4	4	4	+0	16
14	Watford	14	3	7	4	-2	16
15	Bristol City	14	5	1	8	-5	16
16	Derby	13	4	3	6	-3	15
17	Barnsley	13	4	3	6	-4	15
18	Luton	14	4	2	8	-9	14
19	Nott'm Forest	13	3	3	7	-8	12
20	Rotherham	12	3	2	7	-6	11
21	Sheffield Weds	13	3	2	8	-10	11
22	Coventry	14	2	4	8	-11	10
23	Huddersfield	13	2	3	8	-13	9
24	Wycombe	12	1	2	9	-18	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.