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Championship
Referee: K Stroud
Stoke
S T U S U
0–1
Full-time
Burnley
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Burnley
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
33%
83%
Points per game
1,3
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,0
3,2
Scored
1,5
2,5
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,8
This season — Championship · 24/24 matches
Win Ø 46%
33%
58%
Points per game
1,3
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
46%
50%
Both score Ø 55%
46%
63%
Average goals
2,5
3,0
Scored
1,2
2,0
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

37% Possession 63%
6 Shots 7
3 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 5
0 Offside 2
21 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Stoke 17. · Burnley 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Burnley 24 14 8 2 +25 50
2 Sheffield United 25 15 5 5 +21 50
3 Blackburn 25 13 0 12 -1 39
4 Watford 24 10 7 7 +6 37
5 Sunderland 24 10 6 8 +9 36
6 Middlesbrough 24 10 6 8 +7 36
7 Millwall 24 10 6 8 +3 36
8 West Brom 25 9 8 8 +7 35
9 Norwich 24 10 5 9 +4 35
10 Luton 23 9 8 6 +4 35
11 QPR 25 10 5 10 -3 35
12 Reading 24 11 2 11 -6 35
13 Preston 25 9 7 9 -3 34
14 Birmingham 24 8 8 8 +1 32
15 Swansea 24 8 8 8 -3 32
16 Coventry 23 8 7 8 +0 31
17 Stoke 24 8 6 10 -4 30
18 Bristol City 25 7 7 11 -3 28
19 Cardiff 25 7 7 11 -8 28
20 Rotherham 25 6 9 10 -8 27
21 Hull 24 7 6 11 -14 27
22 Huddersfield 24 7 4 13 -7 25
23 Blackpool 25 6 7 12 -10 25
24 Wigan 25 6 6 13 -17 24

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Stoke Burnley
29′
🟨 Josh Cullen
33′
🟨 Ashley Barnes
Half-time 0–0
Harry Clarke 🟨
46′
52′
🔁 A. Zaroury
↦ D. Churlinov
52′
🔁 J. Rodríguez
↦ A. Barnes
61′
J. Cullen 0–1
J. Rodríguez
69′
🔁 N. Tella
↦ B. Manuel
L. Delap 🔁
↦ J. Brown
71′
T. Fosu 🔁
↦ J. Tymon
71′
J. Laurent 🔁
↦ W. Smallbone
72′
74′
🟨 Ian Maatsen
N. Powell 🔁
↦ J. Thompson
79′
84′
🔁 C. Taylor
↦ I. Maatsen
Lewis Baker 🟨
89′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Stoke

4-2-3-1
13 J. Bonham G
2 H. Clarke D
5 H. Souttar D
16 B. Wilmot D
3 M. Fox D
8 L. Baker M
15 J. Thompson M
10 T. Campbell M
18 W. Smallbone M
14 J. Tymon M
9 J. Brown F
Bench (7)
17 L. Delap
24 T. Fosu
28 J. Laurent
25 N. Powell
32 C. Taylor
22 G. Kilkenny
1 J. Bursik

Coach: A. Neil

Burnley

4-2-3-1
49 A. Murić G
14 C. Roberts D
5 T. Harwood-Bellis D
36 J. Beyer D
29 I. Maatsen D
4 J. Cork M
24 J. Cullen M
17 B. Manuel M
8 J. Brownhill M
27 D. Churlinov M
10 A. Barnes F
Bench (7)
19 A. Zaroury
9 J. Rodríguez
23 N. Tella
3 C. Taylor
7 J. Guðmunds­son
15 B. Peacock-Farrell
11 S. Twine

Coach: V. Kompany

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,14
U
3,37
B ✓
2,27
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,05
U2,5 ✓
1,77
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

K Stroud · 147 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.