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Championship

Referee: J Busby

Cardiff

U T T T T

1–3

Full-time

Middlesbrough

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

This season — Championship · 30/29 matches

Win Ø 36%

23%

48%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

27%

62%

Both score Ø 48%

33%

62%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,6

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

38% Possession 62%

15 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 21. · Middlesbrough 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	29	19	8	2	+32	65
2	Sheffield United	29	17	7	5	+24	58
3	Middlesbrough	29	14	6	9	+13	48
4	Luton	28	13	8	7	+8	47
5	Watford	30	12	9	9	+3	45
6	West Brom	30	12	8	10	+7	44
7	Blackburn	29	14	2	13	-4	44
8	Millwall	28	12	7	9	+6	43
9	Norwich	29	12	6	11	+6	42
10	Sunderland	28	11	8	9	+9	41
11	Preston	29	11	7	11	-6	40
12	Hull	30	11	7	12	-7	40
13	Swansea	29	10	9	10	+1	39
14	QPR	30	10	9	11	-6	39
15	Birmingham	30	10	8	12	-2	38
16	Reading	29	11	5	13	-11	38
17	Bristol City	29	9	9	11	+0	36
18	Coventry	28	9	8	11	-2	35
19	Stoke	29	9	6	14	-5	33
20	Rotherham	29	7	11	11	-7	32
21	Cardiff	30	7	8	15	-12	29
22	Huddersfield	29	7	7	15	-10	28
23	Blackpool	29	6	9	14	-15	27
24	Wigan	29	6	8	15	-22	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	15	11	4	0	+20	37
2	Sheffield United	14	9	3	2	+17	30
3	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
4	Millwall	14	8	4	2	+12	28
5	Blackburn	14	9	1	4	+7	28
6	Reading	14	8	3	3	+6	27
7	West Brom	15	7	4	4	+7	25
8	Watford	14	7	3	4	+7	24
9	Coventry	14	6	4	4	+4	22
10	Luton	14	5	6	3	+4	21
11	Hull	16	6	3	7	-5	21
12	Rotherham	14	5	5	4	+7	20
13	Swansea	14	6	2	6	+3	20
14	Birmingham	16	5	5	6	+2	20
15	Sunderland	14	5	4	5	+3	19
16	Bristol City	15	5	4	6	+2	19
17	Norwich	15	5	4	6	+0	19
18	QPR	14	5	4	5	-1	19
19	Huddersfield	15	5	3	7	-1	18
20	Cardiff	15	4	5	6	-2	17
21	Stoke	14	4	3	7	-1	15
22	Blackpool	14	3	4	7	-5	13
23	Preston	15	3	4	8	-11	13
24	Wigan	15	2	3	10	-19	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	14	8	4	2	+12	28
2	Sheffield United	15	8	4	3	+7	28
3	Preston	14	8	3	3	+5	27
4	Luton	14	8	2	4	+4	26
5	Norwich	14	7	2	5	+6	23
6	Sunderland	14	6	4	4	+6	22
7	Watford	16	5	6	5	-4	21
8	QPR	16	5	5	6	-5	20
9	Middlesbrough	14	6	1	7	+2	19
10	West Brom	15	5	4	6	+0	19
11	Swansea	15	4	7	4	-2	19
12	Hull	14	5	4	5	-2	19
13	Stoke	15	5	3	7	-4	18
14	Birmingham	14	5	3	6	-4	18
15	Bristol City	14	4	5	5	-2	17
16	Wigan	14	4	5	5	-3	17
17	Blackburn	15	5	1	9	-11	16
18	Millwall	14	4	3	7	-6	15
19	Blackpool	15	3	5	7	-10	14
20	Coventry	14	3	4	7	-6	13
21	Cardiff	15	3	3	9	-10	12
22	Rotherham	15	2	6	7	-14	12
23	Reading	15	3	2	10	-17	11
24	Huddersfield	14	2	4	8	-9	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.